在以太坊备受期待的Beacon Chain合并之前,围绕着ETH流动性质押的明显优点或缺陷的讨论已经越来越多。大约有20%的以太币被抵押在流动资金池中,而通过集中式加密货币交易所抵押的比例甚至更大,这种讨论是有必要的。特别是考虑到交易所或资金池可能会对网络的未来实施强大的、准委托的影响。另一个论点是,通过流动性质押选项将押注与区块生产分开,押注池和节点运营商在某些时候可能缺乏足够的激励来确保以太坊网络的有序运行。

资料来源:Elias Simos,Dune Analytics。Elias Simos, Dune Analytics, https://dune.xyz/eliasimos/Eth2-Liquid-Staking

尽管这样的管理辩论很有意义,但目前ETH的押注量占流通供应量的比例约为7%,与Polkadot、Solana和Cosmos等先发PoS L1链上的50%以上相差甚远。

Source: Messari, https://messari.io/screener/staking-supply-(top-5-pos)-C1C07858

但从绝对值来看,以太坊的总价值约为340亿美元,按市值计算,它在所有数字资产中排名前十,其中超过70亿美元是在Lido、Stakehound和StakeFi等赌注池中。从这个角度来看,实际上有重要的网络价值在起作用,尽管被押注的ETH数量占总供应量的百分比不高。任何对以太坊网络未来几年的有序运作或其中期定价动态感兴趣的人,都应该密切关注ETH定投池中流动性的变化。

正如保罗-西蒙所说,”你知道离目的地越近,你就越是滑向远方”,这对今天以太坊上的一些流动性盯盘池参与者来说可能感觉很贴切。与GBTC的折扣不同,被抵押的ETH有一个赎回日期,预计是2022年上半年。但与GBTC一样,所有顶级ETH押注衍生品在过去几周都在对其基础ETH的价值进行折价,有些折价的时间更长。

那么,为什么ETH押注衍生品相对于其基础ETH的价值会出现折价?在合并之前和之后的市场动态方面,持有人或投机者应该期待什么?下面,我们将讨论这些衍生代币中的几个;同时,赌注池参与者寻求保持挂钩的策略,以及在合并前的环境中,交易者存在哪些机会。

在高速公路上滑行

首先,快速刷新一下围绕以太坊定投的基本面。以太坊2.0的定投要求验证者向官方定投合约准确定投32个ETH,以便作为一个完整的验证者参与。一旦入股,验证者必须满足一系列技术和操作要求,以执行区块链功能,如批量交易和检查其他验证者区块。在一个被称为 “削减 “的过程中,对不能遵守正常运行时间要求的验证者,会以损失所投ETH的形式进行惩罚。当验证者满足这些条件时,它可以获得一个固定ETH的可变收益作为补偿。这个收益率可以根据所有验证者的押注ETH总量来计算,通过Launchpad官方网站进行跟踪和更新。

虽然许多ETH持有者可能有技术诀窍来旋转验证器节点,但与砍价相关的惩罚可能已经吓跑了他们中相当大比例的人,使他们不敢自行托管(在推出时32个ETH相当于不到20,000美元)。从一开始,交易所就是一个明显的托管质押的选择,但用户面临锁定期,直到最终合并之后。因此,非交易所节点运营商和去中心化的钉子户进入市场,为用户提供了一个选择,其中ETH钉子户可以。1)投资少于32个ETH;2)保留流动性,并且;3)同时可以选择将他们新发行的衍生代币在市场上其他地方重新抵押。

去中心化的ETH定投池的采用情况非常显著。下面是一张按代币划分的分散的、流动定投的顶级供应商的图表。

Source: Elias Simos, Dune Analytics, https://dune.xyz/eliasimos/Eth2-Liquid-Staking

Lido是一个管辖流动性质押协议的DAO,在流动性质押市场份额方面是不可否认的赢家,在整个去中心化ETH质押市场中占有超过88%。Stakehound和Ankr的StakeFi(以上简称 “Stkr”)占剩余市场的7.5%,这三个玩家代表了去中心化ETH定投的绝大部分份额。由于与保管人Fireblocks的纠纷尚未解决,Stakehound不再有机会获得确保超过38,000个客户抵押ETH的加密密钥;因此,该公司在8月停止了其流动性抵押服务,完全专注于恢复用户的锁定资金。这使得Lido和Ankr的StakeFi成为市场上最大的活跃的流动性盯盘供应商。

Lido和StakeFi在提供服务方面有很多共同之处。两家公司都提供Web3方式的抵押,两家公司都允许用户对任何面额的ETH进行质押。Lido对所有质押利润收取10%的费用,而StakeFi收取15%。两家公司都发行衍生代币来代表质押的ETH,一旦合并完成,用户可以用他们原来押注的头寸加上赚取的利息来赎回。为了确保市场的流动性,,这两个生态系统和他们的合作伙伴都提供基于奖励的激励措施,为去中心化交易所提供流动性。对于Lido和StakeFi来说,像Curve和Balancer这样的交易所对于确保ETH定投衍生品持有与其基础资产价值挂钩的某种版本尤为关键。自5月下旬以来,Lido的押注ETH,$stETH,已经显示出相对强劲的价格稳定记录。

Source: Elias Simos, Dune Analytics, https://dune.xyz/eliasimos/Eth2-Liquid-Staking

也就是说,这条道路并不总是 “在高速公路上滑行”(谢谢,保罗),在最近几周,$stETH对$ETH的平价显示出波动性增加。$stETH的90天偏差为-0.48%左右。虽然这种偏差水平并不令人震惊,但也不可忽视,因为这意味着任何衍生代币$stETH的持有人在过去3个月中平均被削减了0.48%。

另一方面,Ankr的StakeFi ETH赌注代币$ankrETH,自开始以来,与挂钩的偏差更大,价格波动也更大。与$stETH一样,$ankrETH似乎在夏季找到了一些与挂钩的调整。平均而言,与$stETH相比,$ankrETH在过去90天里的偏差要高得多,为-3.35%。在9月的一个短暂时期,$ankrETH的交易价格比ETH高。

Source: Elias Simos, Dune Analytics, https://dune.xyz/eliasimos/Eth2-Liquid-Staking

由于Beacon Chain合并的确切日期不确定,ETH押注衍生品至少暂时以折扣价交易是符合逻辑的。即使是虔诚的持币者也需要不时的流动资金。尽管如此,ETH衍生品目前仍代表着最初押注的ETH和2020年12月以来赚取的所有押注奖励。$ankrETH预计这一基础价值目前为1 $ankrETH = 1.051 $ETH。Lido的$stETH是一个重新定位的代币,其价值反映了随着时间的推移所赚取的赌注利息,预测了类似的汇率。作为市场份额方面明显的领导者,Lido的大量市场流动性使得长期以来与ETH价格的挂钩更加稳定。也就是说,Lido和StakeFi在跟踪其基础资产的净资产价值(即押注的ETH加上赚取的利息)时,都表明与挂钩的偏差比较大。

这些资金池用来保持与资产净值挂钩的主要策略是通过激励代币持有人向分散的交易所提供流动性,以换取进一步的收益。Lido通过用Lido自己的治理代币$LDO奖励流动性提供者,来激励收益率的耕作。StakeFi则依靠第三方为资金池参与者提供激励,其中一个例子是OnX Finance,它用OnX治理代币奖励早期的$ankrETH储存者,以提供流动性。这些策略可能影响了这两个项目的持股能力,因为许多持有者通过治理代币奖励获得了超过~5%的收益。在许多情况下,如果考虑到资产净值折扣和随之而来的治理代币的收益率,持有人可能是净5%以上。

对于ETH衍生代币的长期生存能力,进一步提供再抵押的机会将是至关重要的。Hasu最近与BitMEX就这个问题进行了交谈,他表示,如果被盯上的ETH得到了不可信任的管理,并且市场上存在持续的再抵押机会,那么采用ETH实际上是一个机会成本的问题。他认为,”如果这个成本足够低,那么我相信stETH对ETH来说可能会成为美国政府债券对实物美元的作用–准无风险利率。” 那么,对于目前的机会成本可以说是什么呢?每年的收益率是否足够吸引人?衍生品是否有成效–是否有机会重新抵押?对于大约35,000个ETH流动抵押存款人来说,答案是肯定的。

转身再次回家,还是滑落滑走?

对于那些不太关心ETH中期价格动态,并愿意在2022年上半年的合并过程中持有的投资者来说,钉住衍生代币可能代表着轻松的阿尔法。像$stETH和$ankrETH这样的代币在市场上广泛存在,有时会有相当大的折扣,并反映出1.05倍ETH的赎回价值。另外,这些代币可以在市场上的其他地方获得收益。自然,DeFi中的风险比比皆是,ETH的流动性押注也不例外。如果ETH合并被进一步推迟,人们可能会看到与钉子的更明显的偏差。

一旦合并的日期确定,对ETH衍生代币的需求可能会明显增加。特别是在赎回事件之前的几天,人们会期待任何折扣转换为溢价。如果合并发生在一个持续的牛市周期,这种情况甚至更有可能。另一方面,如果在合并之前发生任何种类的大规模风险关闭和市场修正,它可能会削弱这种动态。在这种情况下,人们可能会期待在抛售期间出现更大的折扣,因为市场参与者逃离风险较大的赌注,转而购买稳定币等被认为是安全的资产。

看看其他PoS链,很明显,高流动性–交换和赎回抵押资产的能力–并不妨碍对抵押的整体兴趣。由于对ETH衍生代币有如此多的兴趣和采用,在合并之前和之后,ETH盯盘的更大采用似乎是最可能的结果。这很可能导致最后一刻对ETH流动盯盘代币的抢购,最终关闭今天观察到的市场折扣。ETH液体订金代币是否会滑落?时间会告诉我们。

131 thoughts on “滑动滑行?以太坊 2.0流动性质押在合并前打折”
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