关键见解

◉ 作为资产的以太坊经历了从第二季度低点的强劲反弹,但作为网络的以太坊却很难恢复到5月抛售前的交易量、费用收入、锁定的总价值或用户活动的水平。在幕后,由于以太坊继续主导着智能合约网络开发者的份额,情况更加光明。

◉ 由于以太坊以卷轴为中心的路线图似乎正在慢慢实现,Layer-2上的用户活动确实有所回升。Optimism和Arbitrum上锁定的总价值达到10亿美元。

◉ 在本报告发布之前,成功过渡到Proof-of-Stake,为以太坊开创了一个新时代。随着能源使用量减少99%,潜在的通货紧缩基础货币,以及可投资的收益率,以太坊可能最终找到一些支持者长期以来一直渴望的机构采用。

以太坊简介

以太坊区块链网络是一个去中心化的数据存储和交易验证平台。突破性地引入了智能合约和网络上的虚拟机,创造了一个去中心化的图灵完整软件解决方案。有成千上万的个人代币和应用程序建立在以太坊区块链之上。该协议在开发了一个深入的去中心化金融生态系统后获得了广泛的认可,最近又开发了许多有趣的Web3用例。该协议于2022年9月15日从工作证明(Proof-of-Work)过渡到获取证明(Proof-of-Stake)。今天,以太坊是世界上市值第二大的加密货币。

关键指标

业绩分析

季度亮点

2022年第三季度,加密货币市场出现反弹,部分地从第二季度Terra和宏观引发的崩溃中恢复过来。从价格的角度来看,以太币表现出色,因为人们期待着不断变化的tokenomics和用户在合并后可能出现的空投中积累现货资产。9月15日,以太坊成功执行了从工作证明(PoW)到获取证明(PoS)的共识变更。这一转变为这个最大的智能合约平台开创了一个新的时代。合并后,每日区块奖励从大约13,500ETH下降到大约2,000ETH,这大大降低了网络的安全支出。

以太坊的活跃地址和交易基本保持稳定,季度变化相对较小。虽然地址和交易量可能会随着加密货币的广泛采用而上升,但以太坊的扩展将来自第二层的解决方案,而不是性能更强的基础层。

该协议的收入被另一个加密货币熊市、L2的数量增加以及协议合同的升级带来的气体效率下降。因此,第三季度的总费用断崖式下跌,降至2020年以来的最低水平。如果这些费用继续下降到今年下半年,它们将直接影响到后合并世界中的赌注收益率。

网络性能

自2021年8月实施EIP-1559以来,以太坊交易数基本保持区间波动。EIP-1559之后,每当区块的填充量高于或低于目标限制时,下一个区块的气体费用就会朝相反的方向变化。新的设置通过让交易费吸收差异,有效地减少了每个区块的交易数量的差异。

在这一季度,日均交易量为120万,比上一季度增长6%。ETH转账和DeFi交易增长了7%和14%,日均交易量分别为415,000和82,000。另一方面,NFT和过桥交易有所下降。NFT交易在本季度下降了17%,达到每天18.1万笔,桥接交易下降了41%,达到每天9,000笔。

活跃地址自然也遵循了与交易类似的模式。本季度有55万个日活跃地址,比上一季度增长5%。增长的主要原因是2022年7月27日活跃地址的激增,当时著名的以太坊矿工Chandler Guo宣布了以太坊PoW分叉的计划,同时还有Binance的一些钱包 “维护活动”。最重要的是,这些活动很可能不是因为有新的用户涌入或有新的应用。

在此期间,以太坊供应量增长了0.7%,或年化4.2%。所有的通货膨胀都来自于PoW奖励,因为交易基础费用的燃烧略高于Beacon Chain奖励的膨胀。

自2020年以来,智能合约中的ETH一直呈上升趋势,因为该资产在DeFi和其他应用中的使用越来越多。这已转化为中心化交易所持有的ETH多年来的减少。然而,Terra的崩溃似乎已经侵蚀了对智能合约的信任,甚至在整个生态系统中也是如此。2022年5月9日,智能合约中ETH的比例达到了30%的峰值,与Terra的崩溃同一天,此后一直呈下降趋势。8月底,智能合约上的ETH为27%,比6月底下降了2%。

市场指标

不出所料,随着合并时间表的敲定,交易员在第三季度看涨的赌注有所增加。自从7月中旬官方设定目标区块难度,表明9月中旬的合并日期以来,各交易所的看涨交易量稳步增加。8月底的认购量比6月底的水平增加了一倍多。

认购与认沽的比例也在增加。这些看涨期权的执行价格在9月30日到期的5000美元和12月30日到期的2500美元的水平上最大。在过去的几个月里,ETH在1500美元左右徘徊,当时这些赌注会被放置。这些看涨期权的执行价格表明,许多赌徒的目标是9月的到期日(即期望ETH翻三倍以上),而更多的基本面投资者则是看12月的合约。

随着情绪的转变,以太币的价格慢慢走高,波动率也呈下降趋势。在整个7月和8月,以太币的每日波动范围要小得多。在经历了非常具有挑战性的第二季度之后,整个加密货币和股票市场都出现了绝对波动性的下降。以太坊与比特币的相关性仍然接近90%,而它与标准普尔500指数的相关性呈轻微下降趋势。

第2层分析

以太坊以滚动为中心的扩展计划终于实现了。虽然以太坊的平均交易数可能仍在区间内,但L2交易有了有意义的增长。Arbitrum上的平均交易量几乎增长了三倍,从2022年1月的39,000到2022年8月的115,000。在同一时期,Optimism上的交易也增长了近3.5倍,从41,000到142,000。

新兴的底层生态系统正在推动L2活动。二级应用已经吸引了真正的使用和关注,即Arbitrum的GMX和Optimism的Synthetix。这些应用也是其各自平台上TVL的最大驱动力之一。然而,其中一些增长可能归因于雇佣兵资本,而不是有机用户,因为OP激励机制已经上线,Arbitrum的空投也在预期之中。


今年会有更多促进L2增长和采用的催化剂﹕

◉ Arbitrum的Nitro升级最近上线,吞吐量更高,费用更低。随着升级的锁定,Arbitrum Odyssey预计将再次恢复,这将导致其代币发行。

◉ 三个不同的团队宣布了zkEVMs的突破。zkSync的zkEVM预计将在第四季度推出其主网。

◉ StarkNet宣布计划去中心化并推出自己的代币。

这些带有空投的代币发布对生态系统来说是重要的事件。他们推动了平台的使用,并帮助创建一个用户投资者的社区。然而,它们最终可能是一种不可持续的采用方法。相反,这些生态系统需要创造有机的用户采用,以长期蓬勃发展。

行业分析

去中心化的交易所(DEXs)

在第二季度,DEX的日平均交易量为27.8亿美元。在第三季度,这下降到18.3亿美元。同比交易量也下降了大约8亿美元。Uniswap的主导地位从第二季度末的60%上升到8月底的72%。在整个第三季度,Uniswap在DEX市场的份额一直保持在75%左右。值得注意的是,尽管Curve公司继续发布比竞争对手更高的激励措施,但其销量份额从16%下降到8%。


借款和贷款

第三季度的平均贷款量急剧下降。日平均数从第二季度的2800亿美元下降到1160亿美元。7月是一个明显缓慢的月份,然后在8月交易量略有回升,因为希望养殖ETH POW空投的个人对现货ETH的需求增加。


NFTs

虽然NFT日均交易量大幅下降,但日均交易人数的下降幅度却小得多。这表明承诺用户的基础很牢固,每天大约有4万人。以美元计算的交易量比1月份下降了90%。第三季度平均每月的销售额不到10亿美元,而第二季度为46亿美元。这种下降不仅与NFT的市场放缓有关,也与大多数NFT作为基础货币的ETH价格下跌有关。OpenSea在第三季度继续主导着市场份额。

Sudoswap在第三季度推出。它为NFT市场提供了一种新的方式,为NFT创建流动性池,类似于NFT的Uniswap。虽然交易量似乎在8月达到了顶峰,但当NFT市场的低迷趋势逆转时,sudoswap将值得关注。

稳定币

稳定币是去中心化金融生态系统的流动资金。稳定币速度的转折点与以太坊的整体市值有相当紧密的关联性。虽然稳定币的运动和整体交易量与第二季度相比基本没有变化,但有许多活动对这一部分很重要,可能对DeFi的发展有重要影响。

◉ 在美国外国资产控制办公室(OFAC)制裁隐私协议Tornado Cash的智能合约后,USDC背后的组织Circle禁止了38个地址。
◉ 在此之后,MakerDAO的DAI计划降低其对中心化稳定币的风险,其创始人Rune Christensen为其 “终局 “制定了计划。
◉ Tribe DAO计划解套,因为技术、金融和监管风险越来越大,所有FEI将被赎回。
◉ Circle还推出了一个以欧元计价的稳定币EUROC。欧元的交易价格约为1美元。
◉ Aave宣布其美元稳定币GHO。

Circle对龙卷风现金地址的禁令并不被看好。USDC的市场份额在本季度从44%下降到41%。这一下降很大程度上被BUSD吸收了,它的市场份额从14%增加到16%。

合并和向收购证明的过渡

经过大张旗鼓的宣传,合并于2022年9月15日成功发生。验证器掉线和区块故障是有限的,用户和应用程序没有受到影响。矿工们创造了一个正在进行的工作证明分叉,称为以太坊工作证明(ETHW),在撰写本文时,它在期货市场上的交易价格约为以太坊市值的1%。该链没有看到用户的支持,基础设施供应商的支持也很有限。推出该协议的团队的协调失败,似乎从一开始就注定了它的失败。

合并后,区块奖励减少了90%。这大大降低了网络的通货膨胀,并减少了其每年的安全支出。如果以太坊从本季度开始使用PoS,它将有一个微弱的净通缩供应,比累计验证器奖励多燃烧1600个ETH。从2020年初开始模拟The Merge的影响,ETH将在2021年8月实施EIP-1559以来的几乎整个时期都是通缩的。

向PoS的过渡也使以太坊的能耗大大降低,下降了99.95%。合并应该进一步缓解对使用以太坊的ESG担忧。这应该为更多组织采用ETH作为可投资资产或使用网络本身进行操作打开大门。早些时候,像Mozilla、Discord和Tesla这样的知名组织因为环境问题不得不停止其区块链采用计划。

在两个月的时间里,流入Beacon Chain的资金明显放缓,只增长了4%,而第二季度为17%。这种低增长的主要原因是,最大的赌注衍生品,Lido的stETH,目前的交易价格比现货ETH有折扣。只要折扣还在,用户通过在二级市场上购买stETH,比直接在以太坊上做赌注获得更多利润。在大型集中式盯盘供应商中,Coinbase和Binance分别增长了4%,尽管他们的盯盘衍生品cbETH和BETH也以对ETH的折扣价交易。在流动赌注衍生品中,Lido增长1%,达到420万ETH赌注,Rocket Pool增长11%,达到21.8万ETH赌注。

竞争分析

以太坊及其L2生态系统在加密货币智能合约TVL总额中的份额合计为62%。以太坊贡献了340亿美元的TVL的绝大部分份额,而Arbitrum和Optimism只分别贡献了10亿美元。自第二季度末以来,以太坊的TVL仅增长了8%,但Arbitrum和Optimism的季度增长率更高,分别为33%和224%。

从更长的时间范围来看,自2021年初以来,以太坊及其L2s在TVL中的份额持续下降。2022年第二季度是一个主要的例外,当时Terra的崩溃导致以太坊和L2的份额增加了8%。

以太坊生态系统的关键护城河在于其繁荣的开发者场景和其虚拟机在整个加密货币中的主导地位。它的生态系统的每周活跃开发者的数量几乎与接下来的四个最大的生态系统的总和相同。在熊市中,以太坊的开发活动比其他生态系统站得住脚,与去年相比,其份额增加了10%。

定性分析

监管

虽然监管始终是加密货币行业的一个潜在问题,但第三季度的行动比以往更多。美国政府机构对拜登的行政命令的回应,概述了每个机构对 “解决数字资产及其基础技术的风险和利用其潜在利益 “的方法,应在9月初完成。许多机构没有遵守这一期限,相反,本季度的大新闻是美国外国资产控制办公室(OFAC)制裁了隐私协议Tornado Cash的智能合约。这一行动使得任何美国公民与该协议的互动都是非法的。这是OFAC第一次制裁个人以外的任何实体。

这一决定掀起了对龙卷风现金地址的审查浪潮,来自Infura和Alchemy等关键基础设施供应商。这一事件在以太坊社区引发了关于真正去中心化的更广泛讨论。运行自己节点的用户仍然可以访问龙卷风现金,但绝大多数人依靠第三方基础设施供应商来访问区块链。简单地说,如果最流行的钱包不允许用户与某个智能合约互动,那么该协议对大多数用户来说就基本上无法访问了。Lido、Coinbase、Kraken和其他公司似乎都在遵守OFAC的规定,在目前的验证器组合中占66%以上。

如果这一决定的影响更进一步,像Circle(USDC)这样的稳定币运营商可能会受到政府的监管,类似于银行机构,监管机构的一个简单命令可以要求这些运营商禁止一个子集的地址。这种情况基本上会将DeFi置于政府的直接管辖之下。USDC监管是Maker特别关注的问题,其稳定币DAI由大约30%的USDC支持。Maker正在考虑USDC的替代品,包括ETH。

制裁一个智能合约对DeFi和整个加密货币都有重大影响。这一决定立即引起了人们对政府过度扩张的担忧。民主的关键原则之一是正当程序的权利,一个智能合约怎么能在法庭上有机会?它将如何为自己辩护?任何技术都可以根据这一决定所设定的先例而被政府禁止吗?这些都是广泛的法律问题,将在未来几个月和几年内由美国法院的最高层进行裁决。Coinbase拉开了这个下一章的序幕,为六个被指控与被制裁的龙卷风现金地址互动的用户提供资金支持。

路线图上的下一个步骤

在完成以太坊路线图上的一个重要步骤后,开发者可以将他们的注意力全部集中在扩大网络规模以实现全球采用。开发人员现在正期待着上海的升级,它承诺将对协议进行多项改进。最重要的是,”上海 “将为订户实现提款。

另一个可能包括在上海升级中的提案是EIP-4844。该提案将持续使L2将其交易发布到以太坊L1的成本降低几个数量级,为所有用户带来更持续便宜的以太坊体验。EIP-4444也可能被列入上海。它将使节点在一年后修剪交易历史。这里的逻辑是,这些交易的挑战期早已过去,不要求节点下载这组历史记录将大大减少节点资源需求。因此,更容易获得的硬件要求将使更多的个人能够运行节点,并进一步分散网络的权力。

在2023年底到2024年,以太坊有望通过danksharding进一步扩大规模,这是实施数据分片前的一个临时步骤。随着L2解决方案、EIP-4844和danksharding数量的增加,以太坊在未来12-18个月内可能会对99%的用户来说足够快和便宜。

更长期的升级,如奉行滚动、无状态、节点修剪和奉行提案-建设者分离,预计要到2024年底及以后。

收盘总结

尽管加密货币处于熊市,但以太坊仍然是所有加密货币中最有活力的生态系统,拥有大部分的开发者、用户和应用活动。成功过渡到PoS应该只会有助于成为进一步关注该协议的尾风。随着新的L1挑战者Aptos、Sui和Celestia在第四季度推出,以太坊将不得不继续建立其护城河并加快其路线图,以保持在智能合约领域的领先地位。

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