关键见解

◉ 以太坊升级为Proof-of-Stake,使其更能抵抗来自市场的冲击。虽然ETH在本季度结束时下跌了10%,但它的表现优于BTC和SOL等接近的同行。
◉ 合并大大改善了以太坊的关键财务基本面。协议发行总额下降了87%,被交易费用的燃烧所抵消。实际验证者的回报从0%增加到6%。
◉ 在这个新时代,社区能够克服审查制度的第一个重大挑战。在Flashbots和验证者的共同努力下,审查率从78%下降到61%。
◉ 网络使用指标全面下降,因为它们通常与市场情绪呈正相关关系。本季度的交易量、活跃地址、去中心化交易所和借贷量都有所下降。
◉ 第2层解决方案中没有熊市。第四季度的趋势与第二层解决方案相反,交易活动几乎与第一层的活动一致。随着进一步的改善即将到来,这种趋势可能会继续。

以太坊简介

以太坊区块链网络是一个去中心化的计算、数据存储和交易验证平台。突破性地引入了智能合约和网络上的虚拟机,创造了一个去中心化的图灵完全软件解决方案。有成千上万的个人代币和应用程序建立在以太坊区块链之上。该协议在开发了一个深入的去中心化金融生态系统和最近有趣的Web3用例后,获得了广泛的认可。该协议于2022年9月15日从工作证明(Proof-of-Work)过渡到采取证明(Proof-of-Stake)。以太坊的下一步是通过创建一个第二层解决方案的网络来满足对区块空间日益增长的需求,使其能够在保持去中心化的同时扩大吞吐量。今天,以太坊是世界上市值第二大的加密货币。

关键指标

业绩分析

财务概况

本季度是动荡的,FTX / Alameda的破产给加密资产生态系统带来了巨大的阴影。然而,与大多数其他加密资产不同,ETH并没有创造新的周期低点。尽管ETH在本季度结束时下跌,但它的表现超过了其最接近的同行们。这种表现是在最近和即将进行的升级的背景下产生的,这些升级改善了该协议的基本面。

合并(Ethereum向Proof-of-Stake的过渡)在第三季度的尾声成功进行。第四季度是感受到这一大规模升级全面影响的第一个季度。在其他方面,合并给协议的财务状况带来了重大改善。

现在,以太坊铸造的硬币比它燃烧的硬币少,它已经成为少数 “创造利润 “的区块链之一。随着向 “取证 “的过渡,矿工奖励被取消,总发行量下降了87%,只有156,000ETH。总发行量被16万ETH的烧毁交易费用所超过,使净发行量达到大约-4,000ETH。这种净负通货膨胀表明,以太坊的经济政策是可持续的,协议的使用也有足够的保障。


合并也极大地改善了订户的经济状况。实际赌注收益从第三季度的1%提高到第四季度的6%。大部分的增长来自于净通货膨胀率从4%下降到0%。来自小费和MEV的费用只占验证人收入的一小部分。然而,在11月的一个短暂时期,由于FTX黑客交易后的MEV机会,收益率飙升超过10%。如果情绪改善,链上活动在未来几个季度恢复,验证人的收入可能会进一步增长。

随着其盯盘收益率的上升,以太坊现在拥有所有PoS链中最高的盯盘市值,达到190亿美元。然而,它的订金比率仍然比Solana、Avalanche和Polkadot等链低很多。到目前为止,以太坊的定投体验一直不理想,因为ETH一旦定投,就无法撤回。以太坊的下一次升级将启用盯盘提款,这将降低盯盘风险,并可能改善盯盘比率。更高的押注率将为链子创造更大的安全性,并降低ETH的浮动供应。

网络概述

顺利的合并并没有剥夺用户的链上戏剧性。当验证者开始审查来自美国外国资产控制办公室(OFAC)禁止的地址的交易时,该网络面临着第一个重大挑战。11月中旬,被审查中继器阻止的部分达到了78%的峰值。然而,在Flashbots团队的带领下,社区能够在本季度末将OFAC的合规性降低到61%。一个更新的以太坊路线图现在包括 “祸害”,这将确保它有 “可靠和可信的中立交易包容”。

以太坊的交易量在第四季度出现了小幅下滑,此前全年基本保持在区间内。该季度的日均交易量为110万,比第三季度下降8%。NFT和ETH转移是负增长的最大原因,分别下降38%和23%。部分下降被ERC-20代币、挂钩资产和分散金融的活动增加所抵消,分别增长36%、22%和17%。

日活跃地址的模式与交易类似,本季度下降12%至44万个。具有讽刺意味的是,以太坊的活跃地址在12月初创下了140万的历史新高,但这是因为一个相当平凡的原因:Binance正在为其储备证明审计整合其钱包。通常情况下,市场情绪和链上活动是正相关的,因此,第四季度链上指标不令人印象深刻也就不足为奇。

从一个更积极的角度来看,第四季度增加独特地址的速度几乎是第三季度的两倍。总共增加了1200万个新的独立地址,使本季度末的独立地址总数达到2.18亿个。

市场指标

广义上讲,相对于绝大多数资产类别,以太坊的表现很差。这种糟糕的表现可以在很大程度上归因于FTX崩溃后的恐慌性抛售。这个黑天鹅事件与以太坊网络的性能或完整性没有任何关系,但它仍然给加密货币市场投下了广泛的阴影。

尽管如此,以太坊还是能够在一个下跌的季度中超越比特币的表现。它的表现可能是由于其较低的通货膨胀率和减少的技术风险。这也可能是一个信号,即以太坊被认为是数字资产类别中的一个安全港。


由于FTX的破产所实现的系统性风险,本季度以太坊相对于第三季度和过去12个月出现了异常的相关性。例如,与美元指数出现了适度的正相关,而美元指数传统上与数字资产保持着强烈的负相关。尽管有这种异常行为,数字资产在过去12个月中与道琼斯工业平均指数、纳斯达克100指数、标准普尔500指数和罗素2000指数保持了强烈的正相关。相反,在同一时期,它与美元指数和10年国债收益率保持着强烈的负相关关系。


以太坊的已实现波动率延续了第三季度的下降趋势,在FTX破产前后出现了暂时的峰值。已实现波动率的下降随后导致本季度的清算减少。这一趋势的例外情况是,在围绕FTX的清算之外,10月26-27日和10月29-30日的空头清算,总额分别为5.9806亿美元和5.0738亿美元。这是由于现货价格突破并首先保持在1500美元以上,然后是1600美元,最后形成空头挤压。值得注意的是,期货未平仓合约略微收跌,表明看跌趋势的潜在弱点。


部门概述
稳定币

不出所料,稳定币的供应在第四季度萎缩,可能是由于投资者在FTX破产后退出了该资产类别。11月初,在FTX宣布破产前的市场大跌中,供应量有所上升。然后,随着投资者转换为法币从交易所提款,供应量开始更快地下降。值得注意的是,USDC和USDT的供应与整体趋势不同,在12月13日经历了供应的急剧增加。虽然USDT的供应在本季度持平,但USDC的供应增加了2%。在相同的24小时内,BUSD的供应量下降了15%。

这些趋势可以部分解释为与稳定币市场有关的两个不同事件。首先,Coinbase在12月9日宣布,它将免除全球零售客户将USDT转换成USDC的费用。由于担心USDT无法保持与美元的挂钩,该交易所敦促其用户转换为USDC。在FTX破产后,USDT的交易价格低至93美分。

第二,在FTX破产后,投资者对设在美国以外的其他不受监管的交易所,即Binance持怀疑态度。这种怀疑态度可能导致投资者从BUSD转换到USDC和USDT,以及直接从交易所撤出。Binance甚至短暂地暂停了USDC提款,以促进USDC与BUSD的代币交换。

去中心化的交易所(DEXs)

在第三季度,DEXs每周的平均交易量为120亿美元。在第四季度,这下降到100亿美元。Uniswap的主导地位从第三季度末的69%下降到12月底的53%。整个第四季度,Uniswap的平均主导地位为64%。值得注意的是,Curve的交易量份额从第三季度末的11%上升到12月底的28%。


借款和放款

第四季度的日借贷量几乎减半,下降了46%。日均量从第三季度的2.95亿美元下降到第四季度的2.21亿美元。作为参考,2022年的借贷量在第一季度达到顶峰,日均15亿美元,是第四季度的7倍。

不可伪造代币(NFTs)

第四季度,每日NFT交易者和交易与销售量一起反弹。本季度,每日NFT交易者下降了10%,而每日交易量仅下降了3%。同时,第四季度的日销售量增加了33%。平均日销售量从第三季度的1810万美元下降到第四季度的1770万美元。Sudoswap在第三季度以新颖的市场方式推出,在第四季度保持了1.2%的平均NFT市场份额。


基础设施概述
第二层解决方案

虽然以太坊基础层满负荷运作,交易增长仍然停滞不前,但其第二层(L2)解决方案有显著增长。在第四季度,Arbitrum和Optimism的日均交易量增长了~150%,分别为32万和35万。

这一年开始时,主要的L2s只有微不足道的5%的交易份额,但结束时L2s几乎与基础层持平,接近整个生态系统50%的交易份额。看来,以太坊的L2扩展愿景正在实现。


本季度Arbitrum上的总价值锁定(TVL)基本持平,在11亿美元左右徘徊。GMX是Arbitrum上的明星应用,TVL为4亿美元。Radiant、Uniswap、SushiSwap和Aave是Arbitrum上的其他主要应用,但它们的TVL要小得多,平均每个不到1亿美元。

Optimism的TVL出现了67%的大幅下降,至5.8亿美元。Aave经历了最大的资金外流,其TVL缩减了90%,因为其流动性挖掘计划已经结束。尽管如此,在本季度末,Aave拥有最大的TVL,为1.2亿美元,其次是Synthetix和Velodrome,各为约8000万美元。

即使没有代币,Arbitrum也设法创造了巨大的牵引力。然而,L2的战斗远未结束。未来有多个团队计划进行重大升级。

◉ 即将对Optimism进行的架构升级,即Bedrock,将使其更便宜,更模块化,并面向未来。OP实验室打算让Optimism成为它自己的互联网络链的中心,而Bedrock是实现这一愿景的第一步。
◉ zkSync背后的团队Matter Labs在C轮融资中筹集了6亿美元。据Matter Labs称,zkSync的zk-EVM推出后处于 “baby alpha “阶段,预计将在2023年第一季度进入 “fair launch alpha”。
◉ ConsenSys是Metamask和Infura等基本以太坊基础设施背后的团队,也已经在zk-EVM的推广中抛出了自己的帽子。它宣布了一个私人测试网,将在2023年第一季度向外部用户开放。

中继和建设者

Flashbots是MEV继电器的先驱者。即使它将其技术开源,其份额在本季度仍占主导地位,为56%。然而,在本季度末,其他继电器在一定程度上削弱了Flashbots的领先地位。这种趋势似乎是令人鼓舞的,因为继电器之间的去中心化对生态系统是有益的。更多和多样化的继电器允许更大的审查阻力和更高程度的数据可用性。

区块建设者市场的竞争更加激烈。本季度开始时,Flashbots占据了约60%的显著多数,但在本季度结束时,只有23%的市场份额。到本季度末,builder0x69和beaverbuild建造的区块和Flashbots一样多,各占20%以上的市场份额。此外,Bloxroute的继电器在本季度的综合平均份额为15%。

构建者之间的健康竞争对以太坊和其验证者来说是好事。对于以太坊来说,它增加了审查的阻力。对于验证者来说,它转化为来自MEV的更大的收入份额,因为构建者竞争让他们的交易包括在内。

抵押

在一次成功的合并之后,押注在很大程度上被解除了风险,Lido押注的ETH(stETH)开始与ETH平价交易。正是在这一时期,本季度180万个ETH中的大部分被盯上了。然而,在FTX崩溃后,stETH又开始以对ETH的小幅折价交易,今年收盘时为0.99ETH。

在主要实体中,Lido仍然是最大的押注供应商,市场份额为29%,本季度增加了40万个ETH。继Lido之后,Binance和RocketPool分别贡献了8万个ETH和6万个ETH。即使Coinbase是第二大押注商,它也有一个季度的低增长,只有10,000 ETH。

本季度的年化验证器收益率增长6%,高于第三季度的4.6%。收益率的大部分是在新发行的基础上,新发行贡献了6%中的4.3%。然而,所有的增长都来自于执行层的奖励,这些奖励过去是由矿工获得的。交易提示和MEV支付分别贡献了1.2%和0.5%的赌注收益。

竞争分析

以太坊在第四季度末占区块链总TVL的60%,或包括L2的64%。该区块链的TVL从第三季度末的310亿美元下降到12月底的230亿美元,下降了24%。以太坊的第二层扩展协议Arbitrum和Optimism的集体TVL本季度下降了18%,TVL为15.3亿美元。

在网络的另一边,以太坊的开发者活动仍然强劲。根据Electric Capital的报告,以太坊在全职开发者人数和总开发者人数方面继续领先所有其他生态系统。在前10个生态系统中,以太坊拥有39%的全职开发者份额和36%的总开发者份额。以太坊还在2022年增加了最多的全职开发者,有155名开发者。

定性分析

以太坊向Proof-of-Stake的过渡已经有很多年了。这一行动被比喻为驾驶飞机并在飞行途中更换引擎。这关系到数十亿美元的利益,但通过仔细的研究、开发和实施,过渡顺利地进行,没有出现任何问题。在这一巨大成就(也许是第一个也是唯一的一个)成功之后,以太坊社区的情绪已经发生了明显的变化。以太坊的升级不再是一个空中楼阁式的多年愿景;它们是非常真实的,有时是及时的。核心开发人员似乎对遵守最后期限有了新的兴趣,已经为未来更多的升级做了规划。

接下来的升级,执行层的Shanghai和共识层的Capella,将实现从定投合约中提取ETH。这种能力将最终使ETH的定投体验与其他定投证明链相媲美。升级计划将于2023年第一季度末在主网上线,测试网的实施将于2月上线。我们有乐观的余地,特别是考虑到核心开发人员已经决定放弃其他升级,以支持及时部署。

在上海之后,坎昆的升级就在地平线上。一些从上海放弃的升级可能会成为坎昆的一部分。EIP-4844或proto-danksharding是一个备受期待的以太坊升级,它引入了短暂的数据存储或存储blob。这些存储blobs将允许滚动结算交易而不与其他以太坊交易竞争,有可能使滚动的成本降低100倍。EIP-4844需要一个受信任的设置才能启动,而多方设置现在已经上线,任何人都可以加入。

坎昆还可能包括在EVM对象格式(EOF)的标题下对Ethereum虚拟机(EVM)的升级。这些升级将使一些交易更便宜,简化智能合约的实施,并使未来的EVM升级更加无缝。坎昆预计将在2023年晚些时候上线。

收盘总结

2021年的大牛市让以太坊历史上第一次面临严重的竞争。Alt-Layer-1是有利的交易,因为以太坊遭受了拥堵和高额气体费用。虽然来自alt-Layer-1s的压力在熊市中已经减弱,但威胁仍然存在。以太坊一直是一个缓慢的巨人,为了不打破东西而小心翼翼地移动,其增长随着The Merge达到了期待已久的高潮。接下来的几次升级,将在即将到来的几个季度进行,将使以太坊及其第2层成为在技术层面上与alt-Layer-1s竞争的工具。对于以太坊来说,采用从来都不是问题,而现在,技术终于跟上了。

 

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    1. ธีมและกราฟิก Flirting Scholar มีธีมที่อิงตามหนังจีนชื่อเดียว “Flirting Scholar” ซึ่งเป็นหนังโรแมนติก-คอมเมดี้จากประเทศจีนที่มีเนื้อหาเกี่ยวกับการโรแมนติกและความฮาในชีวิตประจำวันของนักเรียนปรัชญาบริหารในยุคก่อน
    2. รูปแบบการเล่น เกม Flirting Scholar เป็นสล็อตออนไลน์ที่มี 5 รีลและ 3 แถว ผู้เล่นสามารถเดิมพันและเปิดการเล่นบนหลายไลน์ได้ตั้งแต่ 1 ไปจนถึง 50 ไลน์ นอกจากนี้ยังมีการให้โอกาสชนะรางวัลด้วยการสัญลักษณ์พิเศษและรอบโบนัสพิเศษเพื่อเพิ่มโอกาสชนะใหญ่
    3. สัญลักษณ์และรางวัล ใน Flirting Scholar มีสัญลักษณ์ต่าง ๆ ที่เกี่ยวข้องกับธีมของเกม เช่น ภาพนักเรียนปรัชญาบริหาร ครูสอน และสัญลักษณ์การ์ดเล่น นอกจากนี้ยังมีสัญลักษณ์พิเศษเช่น โลโก้ Flirting Scholar ที่มีความสามารถแทนสัญลักษณ์อื่นเพื่อช่วยในการสร้างชุดคอมโบ
    4. รอบโบนัส Flirting Scholar อาจมีรอบโบนัสเสริมในเกม เช่น รอบโบนัสฟรีสปินที่ทำให้ผู้เล่นมีโอกาสเล่นเกมฟรีหรือรับสปินเพิ่มเติม
    เกม “Flirting Scholar” เป็นเกมที่มีตัวละครและฉากที่ส่งผ่านแนวคิดและสไตล์ของวรรณกรรมจีนโบราณ โดยมีเรื่องราวหลักเกี่ยวกับการนักเรียนหนุ่มที่เข้าเรียนที่วัดหรือโรงเรียนซึ่งเป็นที่รู้จักในวรรณกรรมจีนโบราณ นายหนุ่มนี้มีฤทธิ์การจับสาวสวยและต้องมากับการหลงไหลในความรักกับหญิงสาวหนึ่ง โดยมีการสร้างสรรค์ฉากตลกและโรแมนติกแบบเจาะลึกในความรู้สึกของตัวละคร และมักมีความคิดสร้างสรรค์ในการสื่อถึงธีมความรักและการเรียนรู้ในชีวิตอันแสนน่าเรียนรู้
    ขออธิบายฟีเจอร์ต่าง ๆ และรางวัลที่อาจพบในเกม “Flirting Scholar” ได้แก่
    1. เรื่องราวเมื่อคุณเล่น เกม Flirting Scholar มักมีเรื่องราวที่กำหนดไว้ล่วงหน้า ซึ่งจะนำคุณผ่านฉากต่าง ๆ ในเรื่องราวของนักเรียนหนุ่มที่หลงไหลในความรัก ฟีเจอร์นี้จะช่วยให้คุณติดตามและเข้าใจเรื่องราวมากขึ้น
    2. ฉากตลก คุณอาจพบกับฉากตลกที่สนุกสนานและน่าหัวเราะในเกม เป็นที่นิยมในเกมแนวโรแมนติกและคอมเมดี้
    3. ฟีเจอร์การเล่นเกม ระบบการเล่นอาจมีตัวละครหลักและระบบการเล่นที่น่าสนใจ เช่น การติดตามและเข้าถึงตัวละครหลัก หรือระบบการตัดสินใจที่ส่งผลต่อเรื่องราวและความสัมพันธ์ระหว่างตัวละคร
    4. รางวัล แต่ละเกมอาจมีรางวัลหรืออัพเกรดสำหรับตัวละครหรือผู้เล่นที่ประสบความสำเร็จในการเล่น เช่น การเพิ่มพลังพิเศษหรือไอเท็มสำคัญ
    5. อีเวนต์และเควสต์ บางครั้งเกมจะมีอีเวนต์หรือเควสต์ที่คุณสามารถทำเพื่อรับรางวัลพิเศษ ซึ่งอาจเสริมความน่าสนใจในการเล่น
    6. ภาพกราฟิกและดนตรี บางเกมมีภาพกราฟิกที่สวยงามและดนตรีที่สร้างบรรยากาศ ที่ช่วยให้คุณต immersed ในโลกของเกม

    สล็อต Flirting Scholar เป็นเกมสล็อตที่มีธีมน่าสนใจและมีโอกาสชนะรางวัลใหญ่ ผู้เล่นสามารถเล่นเกมนี้ในเว็บไซต์หรือแอปพลิเคชันคาสิโนออนไลน์ที่รองรับค่าย PGSLOT ได้ตามความสะดวกของตนเอง อย่าลืมทำความเข้าใจกฎกติกาและการจ่ายเงินของเกมก่อนที่จะเริ่มเล่นเพื่อเพิ่มโอกาสในการชนะ อย่างไรก็ดีรายละเอียดเกี่ยวกับฟีเจอร์และรางวัลที่มีใน “Flirting Scholar” อาจแตกต่างกันไปขึ้นอยู่กับเวอร์ชันและการพัฒนาของเกม คุณควรตรวจสอบกับผู้พัฒนาหรือแหล่งข้อมูลเพิ่มเติมเพื่อรับข้อมูลที่แน่นอนของเกมที่คุณกำลังเล่น

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