关键的洞察力

◉ 在第二季度的快速采用之后,第三季度的供应增长停滞不前,只增加了0.2%至7.25亿。然而,持有该货币的钱包数量增加了近5倍。

◉ 稳定币仍然受到非本土货币BTC、USDC和USDT的支持,季度末的抵押率为1.9。

◉ 在6月USDT崩溃和稳定币脱钩后,USDT保持了严格的挂钩,并使用USDT、USDC、TUSD和USDJ推出了挂钩稳定模块。

关于USDD的初步介绍

USDD是一种过度抵押的稳定币,由TRON DAO Reserve(TDR)发行,它也是托管人。TDR是由九个加密货币原生机构组成的。USDD的价值由TDR下的加密货币资产的过度抵押支持,包括BTC、USDT、USDC和TRX。钉住是通过钉住稳定模块(PSM)维持的,该模块允许USDT、USDC、TUSD和USDJ的1:1转移。PSM的USDT资金由TRON DAO储备控制。USDD可以由TDR的白名单机构通过存入TRX来铸币。

简介

USDD在2022年5月初推出,在UST崩溃之前,以供应量衡量,它看到了大量的增长和采用。虽然第二季度给USDT和其他稳定币带来了一些不稳定因素,但第三季度对USDT来说要温和得多。

在6月份USDT的贬值使大多数稳定币低于其挂钩,USDT在7月初恢复了其挂钩,并在本季度的剩余时间内保持了一个紧密的挂钩。第三季度的供应停滞不前,因为在LUNA崩溃后,重新考虑了30%保证率的计划奖励。本季度最好的增长点是持有USDT的钱包数量,增加了5倍。越来越多的采用是稳定币供应增长的关键,这对于推动TRX持有人的价值是必要的。

储备在季度上相对平稳,保持在14亿美元左右,或接近2倍的USDT流通价值。USDD交易量也受益于Peg Stability Module(PSM)的推出,该模块允许USDT、USDC、TUSD和USDJ在第三季度以1比1的方式转移USD。PSM目前有2亿美元的资金。

性能分析

USDD供应和TRX存款

USDD的供应量在头五个月增长到超过7.25亿。几乎所有的增长都发生在上市后的前两个月,第三季度只增加了0.2%。目前TRON上有超过360亿USDT,为USDT留下了很大的增长空间。USDD也已经扩展到Binance和Ethereum,但鉴于Sun.io和Sunswap这两个原生DEX的收益机会,它最有可能看到其原生链上的需求增长。


为了铸造新的USDT,TRON DAO Reserve必须存入等量的TRX来支持它。在USDT推出后的前五个月里,有近90亿TRX被存入,占流通量的9.7%。鉴于USDT的采用可能会减少循环供应,TRX持有人可能是USDT采用的最大受益者。

储备金结余

截至9月30日,USDT似乎得到了BTC、USDT和USDC等形式的外部一揽子加密货币抵押品的充分支持。抵押品由TDR控制,没有硬编码合同来出售抵押品以支持挂钩。目前,储备钱包中的所有稳定币抵押品都被锁定并在JustLend中赚取收益,这是TVL在TRON上最大的借贷协议。

TRX没有被包括在支持USDT的抵押品中,因为两者之间具有反射性。目前,TDR很可能能够出售7.25亿美元的TRX来支持未偿还的USDT。然而,目前还不清楚稳定币的规模何时会大到无法在其原生代币中获取流动性。因此,稳定币和比特币被用作抵押品,而不是TRX,因为它们的需求与USDT的供应不挂钩。

在这些非原生抵押品类型之上,TDR有1.2亿美元的TRX被押在USDT的储备账户中。包括这些代币,截至本季度末,抵押品比率上升到205%。

采用

以持有美元的钱包数量衡量的采用率,在第三季度的前半段有强劲的增长。它平息在大约12万个钱包。持有的平均价值约为6,000美元。作为比较,USDT的平均钱包持有量为46美元。

按照目前的数字,USDT似乎更多的是用于收益机会,而不是作为转移货币。去年,TRON上的USDT转账获得了普及,而其费用仍然是名义上的,因为以太坊的气体成本使得ETH的费用只对鲸鱼有吸引力。TRON的费用仍然是名义上的,为希望进行小额稳定币转账的用户提供了明确的价值主张。

第三季度美元的累计交易量超过62亿。第三季度的日均交易量达到了400笔左右。如果采用率上升,这两个数据集应该随着网络上更多、更小的交易而出现分歧。第三季度的平均交易规模超过16万美元。将总交易量与USDT的交易量相比较,USDT的交易量超过60亿,而USDT几乎达到了6500亿。

Peg和位置

在第二季度,稳定币在UST崩溃后全面贬值。USDD也挣扎着维持了几天的1美元挂钩,但到7月下旬,它的挂钩被恢复了。在本季度剩下的时间里,它保持了严格的挂钩,只有偶尔的滑落事件导致价格偏离。
为了维持其挂钩,USDT主要使用挂钩稳定模块(PSM),用户可以在TRON上用1USDT兑换1USDC、USDT、TUSD或USDJ。TRON DAO储备也可以铸造或燃烧USDT,以换取等量的TRX。


TRON DAO Reserve在8月和9月推出了挂钩稳定模块,让用户有机会为其他稳定币铸造USDT,同时也支持挂钩。首先是8月3日推出的USDT PSM,然后是8月18日的USDC,以及9月6日的TUSD PSM。从那时起,PSM已经完成了超过10亿美元的交易量。有USDT为PSM提供资金的金库,每天都在2亿USDT的范围内波动。这是它最初被资助的金额,但从净值上看,它基本没有变化。

作为推动采用率增长的一部分,USDT与Multichain合作,在其他链上获得USDT的流动性。以太坊和Binance Chain上的初步吸收情况很好,吸引了四分之一的USDT供应。在这两个L1上,USDT的主要家是在交易所Curve和Ellipses。自推出以来,USDT在其他链上的采用情况没有什么变化。

定性分析

货币政策

在推出时,增加采用的计划是通过保证本地利率来管理货币政策。该计划是给被批准的流动性和借贷池中的投保人提供提高的美元奖励。
然而,UST在推出后不久就崩溃了,显示了这种增长战略的一些危险性。5月31日,Justin Sun写了一些经验教训,即 “无机和不可持续的增长是不好的”,以及 “透明的过度抵押是防止脱钩的关键。” 他详细说明了USDD将如何瞄准更可持续的增长。更新后的计划将在第一阶段将新的美元存款上限设定为20亿的奖励。第二阶段将需要更长的美元存款锁定期以获得奖励。

也许是由于市场条件的原因,其结果是没有为stakers提供30%的固定收益。目前,在以太坊的Curve上,用户可以通过参与USDT+3CRV的资金池获得大约9%的年利率。然而,在TRON上,在Sun.io上有机会获得进入40%范围的收益率,但它们涉及治理采矿(一种锁定代币的治理形式)。

挂钩稳定模块

为了改善其维持挂钩稳定性的策略,TRON在8月3日推出了USDT PSM。PSM允许任何人1对1地交换USDT和USDT。TRON DAO Reserve在供应量低于5亿时,会随时补充授权合约。他们可以从授权合约中为PSM的安全库提供资金。然后,PSM可以将USDT换成USDT,并将USDT存入安全金库。USDT留在那里作为USDT支持的储备。8月18日,TDR增加了USDC PSM,9月6日,它增加了TUSD PSM。

推动采用

为了支持原生利率,TRON DAO Reserve一直在与集中式交易所(CEXs)合作,使USDT对的交易免费。用户已经能够从Huobi和Gate.io获得额外的奖励,以持有、押注和交易USDT。
截至10月7日,USDT成为 “多米尼克国授权的数字货币和交易媒介”。虽然加勒比海岛国的人口不多,但TRON有机会改善社区的支付转移和稳定币的获取。他们还同意为多米尼克开发和发布一个粉丝代币DMC。

结论

USDD在较为平静的第三季度保持了紧盯,并在10万个新钱包中找到了家。除了新钱包之外,几乎所有其他指标的采用都冻结了。加密货币的熊市和稳定币余额的下降,对于任何新的、混合模式的稳定币来说,都是一个难以获得采用的环境。

UST和Terra/LUNA商业模式的崩溃也使USDT的增长计划受到质疑,这促使其升级路线图并对社区进行后续回答。从积极的方面来看,第三季度PSM的推出应该有助于维持挂钩,并增加对USDT稳定性的信心。到目前为止,该稳定币仍然舒适地被一篮子比特币和其他稳定币过度抵押。

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