“NFT有一个永久的信息标签,记录了它们的唯一性。将这些信息视为真实性证书。 NFT–不可互换代币的优势 NFT–不可互换代币为数字交互带来了一个新的维度。”

摘要

  • 据Nonfungible统计,2021Q2收藏品是NFT最热门的领域,销售额占比达66%,艺术品占比14%,体育占比7%。
  • 根据Cryptoslam统计,目前销售额最高的三个NFT项目分别是区块链游戏Axie Infinity、虚拟形象收藏品
  • Cryptopunk和球员卡收藏品NBA Top Shot,销售额分别达到17/12/7亿美元。
  • NFT 市场爆红的原因:1)有新闻点 2)名人及机构开始进场
  • ​​​​​​​NFT本身是没有任何应用场景的,主要价值还是来自社会共识。NFT最特别的地方,是可以拥有少数甚至独一无二的东西,拥有社交价值
  • ​​​​​​​CryptoPunks是一系列24×24、8位元风格像素的艺术图像,刻划外貌奇特的人物,共有10,000个,系列中的10,000个最终CryptoPunks作品无法修改,各自均有假定的个性和随机生成的特征。
  • ​​​​​​​CryptoPunks目前NFT的地板价位94.5ETH
  • ​​​​​​​CryptoPunks拥有先行者优势
  • ​​​​​​​因CryptoPunks的NFT只有10000,因此具备一定的稀有性
  • 投资NFT市场风险:1)缺乏流动性2)价格浮动会非常大 3)现时NFT市场火热由炒作者主导

NFT市场基本介绍

简介:

NFT(Non-Fungible Token),非同质化通证,是一种不可分割、独一无二的通证,是作为承载物品价值的新型数字凭证和链上权益,市场潜力被越来越多的投资者发现。目前NFT 项目主要集中在数字收藏品、游戏资产和虚拟世界三个领域,有着完善的生态和成熟的交易流转平台。通过铸币交易平台,可以方便地铸造NFT ,在链上查看 NFT 合约的相关信息并进行 NFT 的交易流转。

NFT–不可互换代币的特点:

稀有–NFT的价值来自于其稀缺性。虽然NFT开发者可以创造任何数量的不可互换代币,但他们通常会限制代币以增加稀有度。

不可分割–虽然不是一成不变的,但大多数不可互换代币都是不可分割成较小单位的。你可以购买全部数量的,比如说,一件数字艺术品,或者根本不购买任何艺术品。

独特–这也许是它们最重要的特征。NFT有一个永久的信息标签,记录了它们的唯一性。将这些信息视为真实性证书。 NFT–不可互换代币的优势 NFT–不可互换代币为数字交互带来了一个新的维度。

NFT的三个主要优势:

它们是可转让的 — 与交易所交易的可互换代币不同,NFT可以在特殊的市场上买卖。然而,它们的价值取决于它们的独特性。

它们是真实的 — 区块链技术为不可互换代币提供动力。因此,您知道您的NFT是真实的,因为它几乎不可能通过去中心化的不可变的分布式账本来制造假货。

他们保留所有权权利 — 这是指NFT使用去中心化的平台,数据一旦投入,任何所有者都不能更改。

NFT 市场概况

今年以来,基于NFT技术的数字艺术品正成为热门资产。最早的NFT 项目可以追溯到2017 牛市的CryptoKitties(加密猫),具有稀缺性及所有权的价值锚定的属性。巅峰时期,一只虚拟猫可以卖到10 万美元以上。NFT艺术品方面,2021 年3 月,艺术家Beeple 的NFT 作品《每一天:前5000 天》成交价格高达6934.6万美元,一举成为在世艺术家成交作品第三高价。

2021年NFT市场迎来爆发性增长,根据Nonfungible数据,2021Q2 NFT市场交易额达7.54亿美元,同比/环比增3453%/48%。 

热门NFT项目陆续面世,据Nonfungible统计,2021Q2收藏品是NFT最热门的领域,销售额占比达66%,艺术品占比14%,体育占比7%。 根据Cryptoslam统计,目前销售额最高的三个NFT项目分别是区块链游戏Axie Infinity、虚拟形象收藏品Cryptopunk和球员卡收藏品NBA Top Shot,销售额分别达到17/12/7亿美元。

此外,2021Q2 NFT二级市场交易额呈现增长态势,反映出NFT市场不断发展并日趋成熟,其中主要的NFT交易市场包括目前规模最大的综合NFT交易市场Opensea、专攻艺术品的SuperRare等。

目前,可用于NFT 的领域包括游戏、艺术品、域名、保险、收藏品、虚拟资产、现实资产、身份等。随着数字世界的蓬勃发展,许多标的将以数字原生态形式出现,NFT 巨大的应用空间和技术遐想力有望在新型数字经济世界中变得越来越具吸引力。

在某种程度上讲,NFT的出现和火爆是人们对情感需求的转移。它解决了所有权的问题,并能够创造出独一无二的稀缺性价值。今年NFT 的爆发主要因为:第一,艺术品交易的迫切需求。除佳士得、苏富比等头部拍行的数次拍卖外,大部分艺术品交易都以私洽的形式进行,透明度低;第二,2020年以来的疫情给行业从业者较大的经营压力,需要引入新的商业运营模式;第三,95后、00后新生代对于数字世界的偏好超出市场预期。

从内容上,NFT 包括艺术品、游戏、域名、保险、虚拟世界、元宇宙等。根据NonFungible 统计的数据,全球NFT 市场中前三大应用领域分别为虚拟世界、艺术品和游戏,三者市场规模占 2020 年全球 NFT 市场比例为 25%、24%与 23%,对应的市场规模分别为1.40 千万美元、1.29 千万美元和1.29 千万美元。

NFT项目例子 

艺术品: OpenSea、Cryptopunks、Bored Ape Yacht Club

游戏: Axie Infinity、CryptoKitties

域名: Ethereum Name service、Unstoppable Domains

保险:Yinsure.finance

虚拟世界、元宇宙: Decentraland、The Sandbox

NFT 市场爆红的原因

1)有新闻点

如数位艺术家Beeple的作品,以6,900万美元(约新台币19亿元)卖出,另外像是美国职篮IP结合的「NBA TopShot」、社群共同创作的HashMasks等,当一张静态或GIF动画图片、一段影片、一则留言,都有收藏的价值、增值的空间,还能够以几十万到百万美元的价格卖出,种种话题引起大众关注。

2)名人效应及机构进场

市场上充满了令人兴奋的新项目。越来越多的名人开始发布NFT的消息不再令人惊讶。比如,帕丽斯·希尔顿、埃米纳姆、杰克·多尔西等人都证明了区块链技术是一种有益的销售工具。最近,Spotify上流量最大的10位男性艺术家之一(Ozuna)与最畅销的法国当代艺术家之一(Richard Orlinski)合作推出了一个非功能性音乐收藏。玩家有机会购买其中一件,每件250美元。 

2021年6月24日,目前拥有超过10亿的用户量的全球知名的金融服务机构支付宝在其蚂蚁链上发行NFT,是对NFT的一次非常好的推广,不仅让更多人知道NFT,也为加密资产世界NFT进军传统世界进行了一次很好的铺垫。 

2021年7月1日,Twitter宣布将免费送出140个新设计的NFT。这也是Twitter首次正式进军这个领域。 

新闻机构也开始纷纷试水NFT。例如,美联社正计划拍卖10个独特的NFT以庆祝其标志性的新闻摄影。此前,《纽约时报》(The New York Times)的凯文·卢斯(Kevin Roose)把他写过的一篇专栏文章的图片做成了NFT并以56万美元的价格卖出。在线新闻网站Quartz以1 Ether的价格出售了NFT的新闻文章,而CYBR杂志正计划发行一整期NFT,并计划在Rarible上上市。 

金融服务巨头 VISA 于8月23日傍晚也宣布,豪掷 49 枚以太币、约 15 万美元,买入 CryptoPunk 编号 7610 的 NFT。

从趋势来看,NFT的概念正在迅速蔓延。虽然大多数的NFT收藏量仍然相对较小,但我们可以期待不久的将来会有更大规模的发布。

NFT 的价值

NFT本身是没有任何应用场景的,主要价值还是来自社会共识。NFT最特别的地方,是可以拥有少数甚至独一无二的东西。

以NBA 官方推出的卡牌搜藏应用NBA Top Shot 来说,一般人或许会觉得匪夷所思,卡牌上球员灌篮的画面,在网路上随处都可以看到,为何还要花高价买来收藏? 麦可乔丹的影片大家都可以看没错,但可以拥有他那个瞬间动作的人,是独一无二的,做为这个动作的拥有者,比起看影片500次更有价值。

NFT就像是一个数位板的原版证书,无论是音乐或是艺术创作,虽然知道在网路上可以看到一样的东西,「如果说,这个世界上同样商品只有10个,而你是其中一个,你会愿意花多少成本取得?」NFT更多时候是一种社交价值,可以炫耀跟展示,选择我想在身上贴什么标签、以及表达自我的方式。

NFT是一个数字身份,在网络世界乃至未来的元宇宙中,这是一个刚需。每一个人在数字世界里,必须要有一个数字身份。数字身份的另一个作用在于凸显自我的需求,类似于现实社会中开豪车、穿名牌衣服、带奢侈品包包。在数字世界中,同样存在这类需求。在马斯洛的需求层次理论中,该需求称为自我实现和被尊重的需求。NFT的稀缺性和高价格很好地满足了数字世界的这种需求。其次,NFT平台是一个圈层资格。每个人都希望结交比自己更加优秀的人脉,而NFT平台(如Cryptopunk) 提供了一个全球高净值人群的圈层。当你持有Cryptopunk后,你将与全球范围内同样持有Cryptopunk的人产生联系。

​​​​​​​

CryptoPunks分析

简介:

CryptoPunks是可收藏的数字货币艺术品,以NFT形式存在于以太坊区块链上。该NFT有一万个8位元风格像素的庞克角色,每一个都外貌奇特,系列中的10,000个最终CryptoPunks作品无法修改,各自均有假定的个性和随机生成的特征。

团队:

CryptoPunks是纽约Larva Labs的创意之作,该实验室位于纽约,由Matt Hall及John Watkinson创办。项目始于2017年,是一个对NFT及艺术进行价值实验的项目,最终演变成今日备受全球追捧的项目。

价格及当前状况:

目前Cryptopunks是交易量最多的其中一个,而且社交热度也非常高,最近受到市场的吹捧。Cryptopunk地板价(最低价格)从13ETH一路飙涨至143ETH,涨幅超10倍,目前回调到94.5ETH,约35万美金。

金融服务巨头 VISA 于8月23日傍晚宣布,豪掷 49 枚以太币、约 15 万美元,买入 CryptoPunk 编号 7610 的 NFT。短短4个月的时间里,VISA的购买更是引发了人群的投资热情,Cryptopunk中国社区首当其冲,众多高净值人群争相入局,其中不乏区块链行业大佬、知名投资人、媒体人、上市公司主席等。他们的入局在某种程度了,推动了本轮行情。在最近一周内,Cryptopunk中国社区上演了神奇一幕,社区人数与Cryptopunk地板价曾一度紧密相关。社区每增加1-2人,Cryptopunk地板价增加1-2ETH。

Cryptopunk的优势及特点:

一、时间先机

Cryptopunk基于ERC20发布,早在ERC721出现之前已经上线。而且,Cryptopunk从某种意义上讲,对ERC721的诞生起到了启发作用。正如比特币是第一个加密货币一样,Cryptopunk是第一个真正意义上的NFT。Cryptopunk和比特币的一样,在各自的赛道占据了首发位置。

二、颠覆创新

正如比特币引出了区块链概念一样,Cryptopunk的灵感促使了ERC721的出现。比特币在前人的基础上,创新地提出UTXO机制,解决了去中心化状态下的双花问题,使得加密货币构想成为现实。这是一个革命性的创新。Cryptopunk基于以太坊ERC20标准,做出来一万个不可再次分割的像素头像。这一点在当时同质化代币的时代,是一个革命性的创新。这个创新极大地促进了ERC721标准的诞生。而正是因为ERC721的出现,才有了当今如火如荼的NFT市场。现在很多的10K项目,都是在数字身份赛道的局部性创新,如hashmask的代币更名创新以及各类项目图像艺术创新和俱乐部创新。因此,这些项目无法从根本上超越Cryptopunk的龙头地位。

三、去中心化

去中心化是一个重要的价值属性。比特币之所以具体坚固的价值共识,正是因为完全具有去中心化的特性,是真正意义上的加密货币。另外,创始人中本聪已经完全消失,对项目没有任何干扰。团队对于项目的干预分为正向干预和负向干预,以BAYC(NFT无聊猴项目)为例,在团队的出色运营下,社区蓬勃发展,成为仅次于Cryptopunk的数字身份项目。但是,如果团队负向操控项目,利用项目割韭菜,那么项目最终会毁于一旦,沦为空气。而完全的去中心化则规避了这一风险。Cryptopunk团队对于项目运营基本上没有干预,只预留了1000个头像,并且除了提供discord交流和交易市场之外,并无其它运营行为。所以,Cryptopunk和比特币类似,已经实现了一定意义上的去中心化。

四、价值载体

如果说比特币承载了整个区块链行业的价值,那么Cryptopunk承载了整个NFT行业的价值。比特币减半一直以来是行业牛熊的晴雨表,每四年的一次减半引发周期轮动。如果想要用一个最简单的方法捕捉区块链行业的趋势红利,那么长期持有比特币是一个不错的选择。NFT行业也一样,数字身份是NFT赛道的头部赛道,而Cryptopunk又是数字赛道的头部项目。因此,从某种意义上讲,要想捕捉整个NFT行业红利,只需要长期持有Cryptopunk即可。

五、落地场景

很多人认为,比特币没有应用场景或者其支付场景和收藏场景有限,实则不然。比特币虽然仅有一个应用场景,但是这个场景解决了困扰人类社会绝大部分人们的终极难题。比特币的去中心化,实际上是采用技术手段捍卫私有财产的不可侵犯,保全了在凯恩斯经济学强权下被日益稀释的个人财富。这是各国绝大多数人的共同诉求,对整个人类社会而言意义深远。Cryptopunk同样具有应用场景,解决了人类社会迈入数字世界前后的一些关键痛点。首先,Cryptopunk是一个数字身份,在网络世界乃至未来的元宇宙中,这是一个刚需。每一个人在数字世界里,必须要有一个数字身份。数字身份的另一个作用在于凸显自我的需求,类似于现实社会中开豪车、穿名牌衣服、带奢侈品包包。在数字世界中,同样存在这类需求。在马斯洛的需求层次理论中,该需求称为自我实现和被尊重的需求。Cryptopunk的稀缺性和高价格很好地满足了数字世界的这种需求。其次,Cryptopunk是一个圈层资格。每个人都希望结交比自己更加优秀的人脉,而Cryptopunk提供了一个全球高净值人群的圈层。当你持有Cryptopunk后,你将与全球范围内同样持有Cryptopunk的人产生联系。

六、收藏属性

最初,人们给比特币寄予了支付属性。但是,在区块链技术尚不成熟的早期阶段,去中心化必然以牺牲效率为代价。低效率、高成本和价格剧烈波动性使得比特币很难作为一个支付工具。尽管闪电网络试图解决这一问题,但目前仍不尽如人意。其它数字货币,如BCH以及各种稳定币的发展,为加密支付提供了更加落地的解决方案。因此,比特币最终将成为具有收藏属性的价值锚定物。同样,Cryptopunk具有与生俱来的收藏属性,不仅仅是数字头像,更是数字收藏品。24*24像素风格头像,具有艺术欣赏价值,在数字艺术领域同样具有一席之地。Cryptopunk先后在佳士得、苏富比这两大世界级的拍卖行拍出天价,足以证明传统收藏界对其的认可。同时,已有知名展览馆以及VISA这样的企业把Cryptopunk作为收藏品资产来配置。Cryptopunk在数字世界的顶级收藏价值已经得到各界公认。

七、价格共识

比特币的价格长期以来在所有的加密货币当中雄踞第一,这正是其价值坚实的表现。良币和劣币的最好区分方法就是交给市场去验证,市场说明一切。因为,从某种意义上讲,价格是价值的一部分。比特币长期以来高昂的价格,正是其王者地位的最好证明。同样的道理,Cryptopunk是最贵的NFT。贵即有贵的道理,我们无需去深究它到底具备什么样的价值,仅从它坚挺的价格就可以判断一二。另外,价格是最好的营销手段。每一次Cryptopunk的价格暴涨,都是对Cryptopunk自身最好的营销。毕竟,对于大部分人而言,涨价以及媒体的报道才是其进场的推动力。

八、强者愈强

很多人担心,其它的加密货币会稀释比特币的市值。但是,作为一个新兴市场,随着总体规模的不断扩大,其它的山寨币的增多和发展只能促使主流币的共识进一步增长,价格支撑更加稳固。每一次牛去熊来,资金从山寨项目回流至主流项目。在NFT领域,这个道理同样适用。山寨类10K项目狂热之时,其回报率远超Cryptopunk,很多人蜂拥而至。但是这些项目风险很大,稍有不慎就会砸在手中卖不出去。因此,玩这类项目赚到钱的人,最终会选择Cryptopunk来稳定保值。且不说猴子、狗、企鹅、猫之类的10K项目,单单Cryptopunk的衍生品就高达数十种,如老人朋克、小孩朋克、X光朋克、口罩朋克、BSC朋克、波场朋克等等。这些项目的发展和营销,对Cryptopunk起到了添砖加瓦的作用。它们的宣传,相当于替Cryptopunk做了广告。正是因为它们的宣传,很多人才知道了他们所模仿的背后对象是Cryptopunk。因此,遍地开花的Cryptopunk衍生品和模仿项目,不仅不会稀释其价值,反而使得Cryptopunk的龙头地位更加稳固。

九、未来空间

比特币的早期参与者哈尔芬尼预测,根据未来家庭财富总量计算,比特币在未来将达到1000万美金/枚。这是目前所有预测中的最高价格。比特币目前处于区块链行业S曲线的起步阶段,未来空间不可估量。对于Cryptopunk而言,其所处的NFT及元宇宙领域更是极早期阶段。未来随着传统投资圈、收藏圈、艺术圈、明星圈人士的入局,将迎来更广阔的发展空间。

投资NFT市场风险

1)缺乏流动性

NFT就跟画作等实体艺术品一样,NFT的价值高低,与其市场声量成直接的比例。NFT的流动性相比起一般股票或虚拟货币是低很多的,由于每个NFT都是独一无二的,一般每个NFT的交易次数都非常少,而且不一定能找到买家,经常会出现“有价没市”的情况。

2)价格浮动会非常大

由于NFT一般是没有应用场景,实际用途的。NFT价格更多是取决于市场的共识,所以没有一个很具说服力的支撑价格,可以突然爆升,也可以突然归零。

3)现时NFT市场火热由炒作者主导

最近NFT的成交量及讨论度非常高,由于最近的价格飙升,吸引了大量炒作者进场,这些炒作者不是以收藏艺术品为目标,而是为了卖得更高价钱获利。所以,一旦这波热潮一旦过后,将会出现大量卖压,导致NFT价钱大跌。

NFT 作为新兴投资品,风险存在于前景尚不明确、流动性不足、应用开发不及预期、未来监管、宏观经济等。目前区块链处于发展初期,全球各国对区块链技术、项目融资和代币的监管都存在一定不确定性,因此行业和项目发展存在不确定性。区块链基础设施尚不能支撑高性能网络部署,去中心化程度和安全都会对高性能存在一定的牵制,开发可能不达预期。

232 thoughts on “区块链最火红的新宠!NFT市场及CryptoPunks分析报告”
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