在以太坊备受期待的Beacon Chain合并之前，围绕着ETH流动性质押的明显优点或缺陷的讨论已经越来越多。大约有20%的以太币被抵押在流动资金池中，而通过集中式加密货币交易所抵押的比例甚至更大，这种讨论是有必要的。特别是考虑到交易所或资金池可能会对网络的未来实施强大的、准委托的影响。另一个论点是，通过流动性质押选项将押注与区块生产分开，押注池和节点运营商在某些时候可能缺乏足够的激励来确保以太坊网络的有序运行。
资料来源：Elias Simos，Dune Analytics。Elias Simos, Dune Analytics, https://dune.xyz/eliasimos/Eth2-Liquid-Staking
尽管这样的管理辩论很有意义，但目前ETH的押注量占流通供应量的比例约为7%，与Polkadot、Solana和Cosmos等先发PoS L1链上的50%以上相差甚远。
但从绝对值来看，以太坊的总价值约为340亿美元，按市值计算，它在所有数字资产中排名前十，其中超过70亿美元是在Lido、Stakehound和StakeFi等赌注池中。从这个角度来看，实际上有重要的网络价值在起作用，尽管被押注的ETH数量占总供应量的百分比不高。任何对以太坊网络未来几年的有序运作或其中期定价动态感兴趣的人，都应该密切关注ETH定投池中流动性的变化。
正如保罗-西蒙所说，”你知道离目的地越近，你就越是滑向远方”，这对今天以太坊上的一些流动性盯盘池参与者来说可能感觉很贴切。与GBTC的折扣不同，被抵押的ETH有一个赎回日期，预计是2022年上半年。但与GBTC一样，所有顶级ETH押注衍生品在过去几周都在对其基础ETH的价值进行折价，有些折价的时间更长。
那么，为什么ETH押注衍生品相对于其基础ETH的价值会出现折价？在合并之前和之后的市场动态方面，持有人或投机者应该期待什么？下面，我们将讨论这些衍生代币中的几个；同时，赌注池参与者寻求保持挂钩的策略，以及在合并前的环境中，交易者存在哪些机会。
在高速公路上滑行
首先，快速刷新一下围绕以太坊定投的基本面。以太坊2.0的定投要求验证者向官方定投合约准确定投32个ETH，以便作为一个完整的验证者参与。一旦入股，验证者必须满足一系列技术和操作要求，以执行区块链功能，如批量交易和检查其他验证者区块。在一个被称为 “削减 “的过程中，对不能遵守正常运行时间要求的验证者，会以损失所投ETH的形式进行惩罚。当验证者满足这些条件时，它可以获得一个固定ETH的可变收益作为补偿。这个收益率可以根据所有验证者的押注ETH总量来计算，通过Launchpad官方网站进行跟踪和更新。
虽然许多ETH持有者可能有技术诀窍来旋转验证器节点，但与砍价相关的惩罚可能已经吓跑了他们中相当大比例的人，使他们不敢自行托管（在推出时32个ETH相当于不到20,000美元）。从一开始，交易所就是一个明显的托管质押的选择，但用户面临锁定期，直到最终合并之后。因此，非交易所节点运营商和去中心化的钉子户进入市场，为用户提供了一个选择，其中ETH钉子户可以。1）投资少于32个ETH；2）保留流动性，并且；3）同时可以选择将他们新发行的衍生代币在市场上其他地方重新抵押。
去中心化的ETH定投池的采用情况非常显著。下面是一张按代币划分的分散的、流动定投的顶级供应商的图表。
Lido是一个管辖流动性质押协议的DAO，在流动性质押市场份额方面是不可否认的赢家，在整个去中心化ETH质押市场中占有超过88%。Stakehound和Ankr的StakeFi（以上简称 “Stkr”）占剩余市场的7.5%，这三个玩家代表了去中心化ETH定投的绝大部分份额。由于与保管人Fireblocks的纠纷尚未解决，Stakehound不再有机会获得确保超过38,000个客户抵押ETH的加密密钥；因此，该公司在8月停止了其流动性抵押服务，完全专注于恢复用户的锁定资金。这使得Lido和Ankr的StakeFi成为市场上最大的活跃的流动性盯盘供应商。
Lido和StakeFi在提供服务方面有很多共同之处。两家公司都提供Web3方式的抵押，两家公司都允许用户对任何面额的ETH进行质押。Lido对所有质押利润收取10%的费用，而StakeFi收取15%。两家公司都发行衍生代币来代表质押的ETH，一旦合并完成，用户可以用他们原来押注的头寸加上赚取的利息来赎回。为了确保市场的流动性，，这两个生态系统和他们的合作伙伴都提供基于奖励的激励措施，为去中心化交易所提供流动性。对于Lido和StakeFi来说，像Curve和Balancer这样的交易所对于确保ETH定投衍生品持有与其基础资产价值挂钩的某种版本尤为关键。自5月下旬以来，Lido的押注ETH，$stETH，已经显示出相对强劲的价格稳定记录。
也就是说，这条道路并不总是 “在高速公路上滑行”（谢谢，保罗），在最近几周，$stETH对$ETH的平价显示出波动性增加。$stETH的90天偏差为-0.48%左右。虽然这种偏差水平并不令人震惊，但也不可忽视，因为这意味着任何衍生代币$stETH的持有人在过去3个月中平均被削减了0.48%。
另一方面，Ankr的StakeFi ETH赌注代币$ankrETH，自开始以来，与挂钩的偏差更大，价格波动也更大。与$stETH一样，$ankrETH似乎在夏季找到了一些与挂钩的调整。平均而言，与$stETH相比，$ankrETH在过去90天里的偏差要高得多，为-3.35%。在9月的一个短暂时期，$ankrETH的交易价格比ETH高。
Source: Elias Simos, Dune Analytics, https://dune.xyz/eliasimos/Eth2-Liquid-Staking
由于Beacon Chain合并的确切日期不确定，ETH押注衍生品至少暂时以折扣价交易是符合逻辑的。即使是虔诚的持币者也需要不时的流动资金。尽管如此，ETH衍生品目前仍代表着最初押注的ETH和2020年12月以来赚取的所有押注奖励。$ankrETH预计这一基础价值目前为1 $ankrETH = 1.051 $ETH。Lido的$stETH是一个重新定位的代币，其价值反映了随着时间的推移所赚取的赌注利息，预测了类似的汇率。作为市场份额方面明显的领导者，Lido的大量市场流动性使得长期以来与ETH价格的挂钩更加稳定。也就是说，Lido和StakeFi在跟踪其基础资产的净资产价值（即押注的ETH加上赚取的利息）时，都表明与挂钩的偏差比较大。
这些资金池用来保持与资产净值挂钩的主要策略是通过激励代币持有人向分散的交易所提供流动性，以换取进一步的收益。Lido通过用Lido自己的治理代币$LDO奖励流动性提供者，来激励收益率的耕作。StakeFi则依靠第三方为资金池参与者提供激励，其中一个例子是OnX Finance，它用OnX治理代币奖励早期的$ankrETH储存者，以提供流动性。这些策略可能影响了这两个项目的持股能力，因为许多持有者通过治理代币奖励获得了超过~5%的收益。在许多情况下，如果考虑到资产净值折扣和随之而来的治理代币的收益率，持有人可能是净5%以上。
对于ETH衍生代币的长期生存能力，进一步提供再抵押的机会将是至关重要的。Hasu最近与BitMEX就这个问题进行了交谈，他表示，如果被盯上的ETH得到了不可信任的管理，并且市场上存在持续的再抵押机会，那么采用ETH实际上是一个机会成本的问题。他认为，”如果这个成本足够低，那么我相信stETH对ETH来说可能会成为美国政府债券对实物美元的作用–准无风险利率。” 那么，对于目前的机会成本可以说是什么呢？每年的收益率是否足够吸引人？衍生品是否有成效–是否有机会重新抵押？对于大约35,000个ETH流动抵押存款人来说，答案是肯定的。
转身再次回家，还是滑落滑走？
对于那些不太关心ETH中期价格动态，并愿意在2022年上半年的合并过程中持有的投资者来说，钉住衍生代币可能代表着轻松的阿尔法。像$stETH和$ankrETH这样的代币在市场上广泛存在，有时会有相当大的折扣，并反映出1.05倍ETH的赎回价值。另外，这些代币可以在市场上的其他地方获得收益。自然，DeFi中的风险比比皆是，ETH的流动性押注也不例外。如果ETH合并被进一步推迟，人们可能会看到与钉子的更明显的偏差。
一旦合并的日期确定，对ETH衍生代币的需求可能会明显增加。特别是在赎回事件之前的几天，人们会期待任何折扣转换为溢价。如果合并发生在一个持续的牛市周期，这种情况甚至更有可能。另一方面，如果在合并之前发生任何种类的大规模风险关闭和市场修正，它可能会削弱这种动态。在这种情况下，人们可能会期待在抛售期间出现更大的折扣，因为市场参与者逃离风险较大的赌注，转而购买稳定币等被认为是安全的资产。
看看其他PoS链，很明显，高流动性–交换和赎回抵押资产的能力–并不妨碍对抵押的整体兴趣。由于对ETH衍生代币有如此多的兴趣和采用，在合并之前和之后，ETH盯盘的更大采用似乎是最可能的结果。这很可能导致最后一刻对ETH流动盯盘代币的抢购，最终关闭今天观察到的市场折扣。ETH液体订金代币是否会滑落？时间会告诉我们。
I read your article carefully, it helped me a lot, I hope to see more related articles in the future. thanks for sharing.
медицинская справка
Thank you for the auspicious writeup. It if truth be told used to be a entertainment account it. Glance complicated to far added agreeable from you! By the way, how can we keep up a correspondence?
Can you be more specific about the content of your article? After reading it, I still have some doubts. Hope you can help me. https://accounts.binance.com/sk/register?ref=V2H9AFPY
You really make it seem so easy with your presentation but I find this topic to be really something which I think I would never understand. It seems too complicated and very broad for me. I am looking forward for your next post, I will try to get the hang of it!
Yes! Finally something about %keyword1%.
It’s hard to find knowledgeable people on this topic, but you sound like you know what you’re talking about! Thanks
I am extremely impressed with your writing skills and also with the layout on your blog. Is this a paid theme or did you customize it yourself? Either way keep up the nice quality writing, it’s rare to see a nice blog like this one nowadays.
Inspiring quest there. What occurred after? Thanks!
Hey very interesting blog!
Hi there, I found your blog via Google at the same time as searching for a comparable topic, your site got here up, it seems good. I have bookmarked it in my google bookmarks.
This is a topic that is close to my heart… Many thanks! Where are your contact details though?
I’m impressed, I must say. Rarely do I encounter a blog that’s both educative and interesting, and let me tell you, you have hit the nail on the head. The issue is something that not enough people are speaking intelligently about. I’m very happy that I stumbled across this in my search for something concerning this.
Please let me know if you’re looking for a article writer for your weblog. You have some really great posts and I think I would be a good asset. If you ever want to take some of the load off, I’d absolutely love to write some articles for your blog in exchange for a link back to mine. Please blast me an e-mail if interested. Regards!
In fact no matter if someone doesn’t understand after that its up to other people that they will help, so here it occurs.
This information is invaluable. Where can I find out more?
Nice post. I learn something new and challenging on sites I stumbleupon every day. It will always be exciting to read content from other writers and practice a little something from their websites.
I believe what you postedtypedsaidbelieve what you postedtypedthink what you postedtypedthink what you postedtypedWhat you postedwrotesaid was very logicala bunch of sense. But, what about this?think about this, what if you were to write a killer headlinetitle?content?typed a catchier title? I ain’t saying your content isn’t good.ain’t saying your content isn’t gooddon’t want to tell you how to run your blog, but what if you added a titlesomethingheadlinetitle that grabbed a person’s attention?maybe get people’s attention?want more? I mean %BLOG_TITLE% is a little vanilla. You ought to peek at Yahoo’s home page and see how they createwrite news headlines to get viewers interested. You might add a video or a pic or two to get readers interested about what you’ve written. Just my opinion, it could bring your postsblog a little livelier.
Hmm is anyone else experiencing problems with the images on this blog loading? I’m trying to figure out if its a problem on my end or if it’s the blog. Any responses would be greatly appreciated.
Thanks for finally writing about > %blog_title% < Liked it!
I love what you guys are usually up too. This sort of clever work and coverage! Keep up the very good works guys I’ve added you guys to our blogroll.
great issues altogether, you just won a logo new reader. What might you suggest in regards to your publish that you simply made a few days ago? Any positive?
I have read so many posts about the blogger lovers but this post is truly a pleasant article, keep it up.
I’m gone to say to my little brother, that he should also go to see this blog on regular basis to get updated from newest reports.
Its like you read my mind! You seem to know so much approximately this, like you wrote the guide in it or something. I feel that you simply could do with some % to pressure the message house a bit, however other than that, this is magnificent blog. A great read. I’ll definitely be back.
Pretty section of content. I just stumbled upon your website and in accession capital to assert that I acquire in fact enjoyed account your blog posts. Any way I’ll be subscribing to your augment and even I achievement you access consistently rapidly.
My spouse and I stumbled over here from a different web page and thought I might as well check things out. I like what I see so now i’m following you. Look forward to checking out your web page yet again.
Incredible! This blog looks exactly like my old one! It’s on a completely different topic but it has pretty much the same layout and design. Wonderful choice of colors!
Hello, just wanted to mention, I liked this article. It was practical. Keep on posting!
Can you tell us more about this? I’d like to find out more details.
If you wish for to take much from this piece of writing then you have to apply such strategies to your won webpage.
Hi there! I know this is kinda off topic however , I’d figured I’d ask. Would you be interested in exchanging links or maybe guest writing a blog article or vice-versa? My website discusses a lot of the same subjects as yours and I believe we could greatly benefit from each other. If you are interested feel free to send me an e-mail. I look forward to hearing from you! Excellent blog by the way!
Great post.
Excellent post. I’m facing some of these issues as well..
This post provides clear idea designed for the new people of blogging, that actually how to do blogging and site-building.
Excellent website you have here but I was curious if you knew of any user discussion forums that cover the same topics talked about in this article? I’d really love to be a part of online community where I can get suggestions from other knowledgeable individuals that share the same interest. If you have any recommendations, please let me know. Appreciate it!
Недорогой мужской эротический массаж в Москве с сауной
Hi to all, how is all, I think every one is getting more from this web site, and your views are nice designed for new viewers.
Heya i’m for the primary time here. I came across this board and I find It truly useful & it helped me out a lot. I am hoping to offer something back and help others like you helped me.
This article is in fact a pleasant one it helps new internet people, who are wishing for blogging.
This is the right site for anyone who would like to find out about this topic. You realize so much its almost hard to argue with you (not that I personally would want toHaHa). You definitely put a new spin on a topic that’s been written about for many years. Excellent stuff, just excellent!
Hi there everyone, it’s my first go to see at this site, and piece of writing is really fruitful designed for me, keep up posting such articles.
First off I want to say terrific blog! I had a quick question that I’d like to ask if you don’t mind. I was curious to know how you center yourself and clear your mind before writing. I have had a tough time clearing my mind in getting my thoughts out. I do enjoy writing but it just seems like the first 10 to 15 minutes are generally wasted just trying to figure out how to begin. Any suggestions or tips? Cheers!
When I originally commented I seem to have clicked the -Notify me when new comments are added- checkbox and now every time a comment is added I recieve four emails with the same comment. Is there a means you can remove me from that service? Many thanks!
Unquestionably believe that which you stated. Your favorite justification appeared to be on the net the simplest thing to be aware of. I say to you, I definitely get irked while people consider worries that they plainly do not know about. You managed to hit the nail upon the top and also defined out the whole thing without having side effect , people can take a signal. Will likely be back to get more. Thanks
I am extremely impressed with your writing skills and also with the layout on your blog. Is this a paid theme or did you customize it yourself? Either way keep up the nice quality writing, it’s rare to see a nice blog like this one nowadays.
Do you mind if I quote a couple of your posts as long as I provide credit and sources back to your site? My blog site is in the very same area of interest as yours and my visitors would definitely benefit from a lot of the information you present here. Please let me know if this okay with you. Thanks a lot!
Hey there just wanted to give you a quick heads up. The text in your content seem to be running off the screen in Safari. I’m not sure if this is a format issue or something to do with internet browser compatibility but I thought I’d post to let you know. The design and style look great though! Hope you get the problem resolved soon. Many thanks
I am extremely impressed with your writing skills and also with the layout on your blog. Is this a paid theme or did you customize it yourself? Either way keep up the nice quality writing, it’s rare to see a nice blog like this one these days.
Wow that was odd. I just wrote an really long comment but after I clicked submit my comment didn’t show up. Grrrr… well I’m not writing all that over again. Anyway, just wanted to say great blog!
Have you ever considered about including a little bit more than just your articles? I mean, what you say is valuable and all. However think of if you added some great graphics or video clips to give your posts more, “pop”! Your content is excellent but with images and clips, this website could undeniably be one of the most beneficial in its niche. Amazing blog!
Appreciating the commitment you put into your website and in depth information you present. It’s good to come across a blog every once in a while that isn’t the same outdated rehashed material. Fantastic read! I’ve saved your site and I’m including your RSS feeds to my Google account.
I wanted to thank you for this excellent read!! I certainly enjoyed every little bit of it. I’ve got you book-marked to check out new stuff you post
When someone writes an article he/she maintains the idea of a user in his/her mind that how a user can understand it. Thus that’s why this piece of writing is great. Thanks!
Hey I am so happy I found your weblog, I really found you by mistake, while I was researching on Google for something else, Nonetheless I am here now and would just like to say kudos for a remarkable post and a all round interesting blog (I also love the theme/design), I dont have time to go through it all at the minute but I have book-marked it and also included your RSS feeds, so when I have time I will be back to read a great deal more, Please do keep up the superb jo.
Its like you read my mind! You seem to know so much approximately this, like you wrote the book in it or something. I feel that you could do with some % to drive the message house a bit, however other than that, this is great blog. A great read. I’ll definitely be back.
Hi there mates, how is everything, and what you want to say regarding this article, in my view its really remarkable for me.