关键见解

◉ 帕拉钦老虎机拍卖会继续进行,有八个新的赢家。通过28次拍卖,1.32亿DOT(占总供应量的10.7%;价值8.5亿美元)已被保兑。

◉ Cross-Consensus消息格式(XCM)的采用继续增加。Parity Technologies宣布了下一个版本,XCM V3。

◉ 围绕Polkadot治理V2的进一步细节被公布。它将增加有资格一次投票的提案数量,并进一步分散网络的权力。

◉ 验证者人数、提名者人数和总供应量的百分比等基本指标保持一致。

关于Polkadot的初步介绍

Polkadot是一个被提名的取证(NPoS)区块链网络,旨在支持各种互连的、特定于应用的第一层链,称为parachains。在Polkadot内构建的每条链都使用Parity Technologies的区块链开发框架Substrate,该框架允许开发者选择最适合其特定应用链的具体组件。Polkadot指的是整个parachains的生态系统,它插入到一个被称为中继链的单一基础平台。这个基础平台不支持应用功能,而是容纳所有验证器,并负责保护、管理和连接parachains的安全。

业绩分析
财务概览

加密货币市场继续受到反复无常的全球宏观环境的摆布。在第三季度,由于央行的鹰派言论,更广泛的市场反弹了36%,然后回到了开盘水平。Polkadot的市值紧随其后,以较高的β值反弹了39%,然后完全回调,在本季度结束时下降了6%。

像DOT流通供应量和DOT库房余额这样的内部指标,如预期的那样继续稳步增长。DOT代币是通货膨胀的,目标年通胀率为10%。国库的资金主要来自区块奖励和交易费用。同时,收入和国库支出等外在指标出现了相当大的波动。总体而言,Polkadot 2022年第三季度的财务表现相对停滞。

虽然中继链作为Polkadot的核心连接层,但parachains提供了吸引和迎合终端用户的功能。因此,大部分的网络活动发生在parachains上。然而,parachain交易不受Relay Chain交易费用的限制。相反,parachains对其收费结构有充分的自主权。大多数准链选择要求交易费用以其本地代币计价。他们还选择将产生的费用的一定比例支付给整理者,以避免网络垃圾。

中继链确实支持一些最终用户的功能(主要是代币转移、押注、验证人选举、治理投票和parachain插槽拍卖的参与),费用以DOT的形式支付。这种原生的中继链活动产生了Polkadot的收入。由于蜡烛机制的存在,收入往往在大多数拍卖开始时激增。

在第三季度,Polkadot的收入为115,000美元,流通的P/S比率为19,945倍。作为比较,Avalanche的收入是230万美元,流通的P/S比率是665倍,Cosmos Hub的收入是14.2万美元,流通的P/S比率是4965倍。按照传统的标准,这些基础层的每一个指标都很糟糕。以收入为中心的糟糕指标与高估值相搭配,突出了对基础层协议进行估值的困难。

Polkadot国库的资金来自于区块奖励、验证器削减、交易费用和赌注的低效率。在未来,parathreads也将通过参与每个区块的拍卖来产生国库资金。在第三季度收盘时,Polkadot国库拥有3670万DOT的巨大战利品,相当于大约2.36亿美元。

尽管国库数额巨大,但在过去一年中,其国库支出仅有881,000 DOT(占国库的2.4%)。在总支出中,大约66%是在2022年第三季度,其中大部分用于支持开发人员的工具。由于理事会的带宽有限,以及限制性的治理模式只支持每28天一个公开提案,国库的使用如此不足。最近宣布的治理V2将改善这些缺陷,并应增加库房支出以支持生态系统。

网络概况


正如收入部分所提到的,中继链支持账户创建和代币转移的治理和插槽拍卖。在第三季度,这两项指标连续第三个季度经历了相当大的下降。下降的原因可能是由于熊市导致的parachain插槽拍卖参与度降低和加密货币用户减少。

虽然中继链支持账户创建、代币转移、parachain拍卖参与等功能,但它的唯一目的是在parachain之间转发信息,并协调验证器组。为了消除这些辅助功能,Polkadot正在推出新的 “共同利益 “parachains(在报告的后面会有更多介绍)。

Polkadot生态系统中的大部分活动都发生在parachains上。每个parachain是一个第一层区块链,有自己的社区、经济和治理模式。不幸的是,由于网络还处于初级阶段,很难汇总parachain的用户活动。Polkadot社区的成员目前正在建立改进的数据源以监测整体活动。在这期间,XCM信息可以作为整个生态系统活动的代理。

交叉共识消息格式(XCM)是一种允许平行链交换消息的通信语言。 XCM 消息可以通过平行链到平行链的 HRMP 通道、中继链和平行链之间以及 Polkadot 生态系统之外的其他应用程序和基础层发送。 XCM 消息可用于特定操作、资产转移和资产传送,仅举几个用例。 未来,Polkadot 预计会有关于特定平行链活动的更细粒度的数据。

XCM 的扩展对于 Polkadot 生态系统的持续发展至关重要。 XCM 将 Polkadot 的多链功能带入生活,并为新颖的应用程序开发打开了大门。 作为一种通信语言,XCM 允许平行链与其他平行链交换消息,类似于 Cosmos 上的跨链通信(IBC)。 在 7 月初的 Polkadot Decoded 上,Gavin Wood 宣布了 XCM V3,即下一代 XCM。

去中心化和质押概述


第三季度是Polkadot的分散和抵押的另一个稳定季度。基本指标,如验证器数量,总供应量的百分比,以及运行一个活跃验证器所需的最低DOT都很稳定。与权力下放和抵押有关的指标的一致性表明了一个正常和健康的生态系统。

正如2022年第一季度和第二季度报告中所述,验证人支付方案导致所有验证人获得几乎相同的奖励的概率保证。平均分散的DOT赌注收益创造了一个环境,激励提名人与较低赌注的验证人赌注,以实现收益最大化。在第三季度,支付计划发挥了作用:297个验证人中有292个(98%)有180-340万DOT赌注。

相对均匀的验证人股权分布加强了Polkadot的分散性。虽然很难计算,但由于验证人股权的均匀分布,Polkadot相对于同行来说可能有一个非常有竞争力的中本聪系数。最终,Polkadot计划将验证器集扩大到1000个,以支持100个parachains。然而,Polkadot必须首先改善网络存储和可扩展性,以支持额外的验证人。

波尔卡多网络的理想押注率为50%,可随准绳数量的变化而变化,以确保网络的安全,同时保持充足的流动性。迄今为止,DOT总赌注的百分比一直高于理想赌注率。它的范围是DOT代币总赌注的54%到59%。当系统赌注率高于理想赌注率时,提名人的奖励就会减少,额外的奖励就会流向财政部。

在第三季度,Polkadot发布了两个新的赌注相关产品:提名池赌注仪表板。提名池允许用户创建无权限的赌注池,使任何拥有至少一个DOT的人都能参与赌注。赌注仪表板提供了一个更方便用户的导航和查看体验。这些新产品诱发了钉住的DOT季度增长3.1%,是今年最大的增长。

生态系统和开发者活动概述


在2021年11月初开始后,parachain插槽拍卖一直在继续,每12天就有一次新的拍卖。第三季度八个新的parachain赢家是﹕

◉ Darwinia – 一个使用零知识证明和乐观技术相结合的无信任多链桥枢纽。它在异构链之间提供了一个通用的桥接解决方案,不需要保管库或包裹代币。

◉ Bridgeport Group – 游戏和区块链技术平台的早期投资者,为Web3、Metaverse和NFT生态系统建立基础设施。

◉ Integritee – 一个可扩展的公共区块链,用于安全地处理敏感的商业或个人数据。

◉ KILT – 一种区块链身份协议,用于发布自主权、匿名、可验证的凭证和去中心化的标识符。

◉ Kylin – 一个模块化和可配置的去中心化数据基础设施和经济,为加密货币项目提供准确、完整和可验证的数据。

◉ Aventus Network – 一个企业级的区块链,允许企业轻松开发和实施高效、高度安全的区块链解决方案。

◉ Watr – 一个为新一类道德商品提供端到端服务的生态系统:从碳信用到金属、农业和能源,它们的来源、采购、融资和实物交付的贸易–都在链上。

◉ OAK网络 – 跨链自动化的枢纽,使多链应用能够安排和自动化任何底层外在或EVM智能合约功能。

通过parachain槽位拍卖的DOT被锁定在中继链上,从而从流通中移除,大约有两年的槽位租赁期。通过28次拍卖,1.32亿DOT(占总供应量的10.7%;价值8.5亿美元)已被保值。同时,DOT的目标年通货膨胀率为10%,没有最大供应量。

通过拍卖保值的DOT数量已经稳步下降。不足为奇的是,名额拍卖的参与在2021年第四季度达到顶峰,这主要是由于对首届拍卖的预期不断增加。

赢得名额所需的较低门槛已导致项目自筹资金购买名额。当项目自筹资金时,他们不会从社区众筹DOT以换取他们的原始代币。因此,他们保留了更大比例的原始代币,可以通过其他渠道出售,空投给社区,或加入国库。在计划到2023年2月的剩余13次拍卖中,更多的parachain团队可能会自筹资金购买parachain插槽。

Kusama是Polkadot的一个金丝雀网络。它是一个拥有真正经济价值的早期版本的代码。对于开发者来说,Kusama是运行时升级、链上治理和准链的试验场。

在第三季度,Polkadot的市值大约是Kusama的17倍(74亿美元对4.3亿美元),收入是11倍(115,000美元对11,000美元)。同时,这两个姐妹网络之间的网络活动更为接近,Polkadot上的活跃账户为6倍(139,000对25,000),转账为3倍(600,000对209,000),而XCM信息几乎相等(58,000对65,000)。网络活动可能更接近,有几个原因。Kusama有更多的准链(53对28);XCM提前几个月推出;和/或早期采用的粘性足够大,用户还没有过渡到母链。从赌注和权力下放的角度来看,Kusama实际上有更大比例的总供应赌注(68%对Polkadot的56%)。

定性分析
治理

Polkadot采用由社区成员、理事会和技术委员会组成的三院治理结构。该结构帮助Polkadot在其起步阶段成长。然而,Polkadot的治理存在两个实质性问题:缓慢的投票(每28天只有一次社区投票)和集中化(理事会和技术委员会)。

为了解决这些问题,Gavin Wood在Polkadot Decoded宣布了Polkadot治理V2。治理V2通过允许在任何时候提出无限数量的提案,消除了社区的投入障碍。这些提案被分成几层,以简化程序。每个层级都基于各种条件,包括指定的投票时间,一次有资格投票的数量(例如,在第二层级中,一次只有两票有资格参加社区投票),以及DOT的首付。当然,更严格的层级会有更高的门槛。

治理V2还将用一个新的机构,即联谊会来取代理事会和技术委员会。为了减轻集中化的担忧,所有用户都有资格加入联谊会。尽管联谊会将有一个排名系统,这导致了进一步的集中化隐患,但Polkadot将使用多种机制来确保充分的权力下放。该策略包括宪法,社区对高级职位的投票,以及限制领导层控制的设计。像往常一样,治理V2将首先在Kusama推出,然后在今年晚些时候经社区批准后在Polkadot推出。

战略和展望

Polkadot的主要重点一直是,并将继续是提高网络的能力和功能。上个季度推出的XCM是一个重要的里程碑,因为准绳终于开始沟通了。生态系统团队设想利用XCM开发新的用例。为了继续建设网络,Polkadot计划继续开发XCM,引入新的共同利益链,优化共识协议,并推出parathread支持。

XCM V3

简而言之,跨共识信息格式(XCM)是一种通信语言,允许parachains交换信息。XCM是一种关于如何发送消息的格式,但它不能实际发送消息。对于准链来说,他们需要使用跨链信息传递(XCMP)通道来相互传递信息。XCMP就像一个电话,而XCM是在通话时说的语言。由于XCMP仍在开发中,Polkadot在XCMP-lite(或HRMP)中使用一个临时解决方案。

Parity Technologies宣布,XCM的下一个版本,即XCM V3,预计将于2022年底发布。它将引入新的功能,包括增强的可编程性、与外部网络的桥接、改进的费用支付、NFTs等。

公益链

除了协议类链,Polkadot中继链还为共同利益类链保留了空间,即有利于整个Polkadot生态系统的类链。共同利益链通过链上治理来分配中继链的使用权,而不是传统的parachain插槽拍卖过程。第一个共同利益链Statemint支持创建和管理可替换和不可替换的资产。

8月,Parity宣布,两个新的共同利益链几乎准备好推出。第一个将被称为 “集体”,它将允许团体以无信任的方式一起工作。集体的最初用户将是联谊会和联盟。第二个共同利益链将是连接Polkadot和其他区块链的桥梁中心。

异步支持

Polkadot正在计划自推出以来对parachain共识的首次重大优化,即所谓的 “异步支持”。它的目的是做三件事。

◉ 将parachain的区块时间减少到6秒。
◉ 将区块空间的数量增加5-10倍,以及
◉ 如果parachain块没有进入中继链,允许它们被重复使用。

Parity Technologies估计,异步支持将使网络每秒的交易量增加到100,000至1,000,000。它计划在EOY之前在Kusama发布。

Parathreads

Parathreads是现收现付的parachain,可以在不参与parachain插槽拍卖的情况下启动和运行。它们和帕拉夏恩区块一样安全,是快速迭代的开发者团队进入生态系统的另一种途径。Parathreads计划在2023年上半年发布。

收盘总结

与历史上的第二季度相比,第三季度相对平淡,因为第二季度Terra Luna的崩溃、3AC的破产、俄乌战争的升级以及美联储激进的加息都对市场造成了破坏。大盘在经历了短暂的36%的熊市反弹后,由于央行的持续鹰派而全面回调。Polkadot的估值以较高的贝塔值跟踪大盘,而关键业绩指标和网络基本面产生了混合结果。

Polkadot的财务和网络活动很大程度上反映了原生的中继链活动。密切相关的关键绩效指标,如活跃账户、新账户、收入和代币转移都经历了两位数的百分比下降。这些下降可能是由预期的parachain插槽拍卖参与率下降和熊市的困境所驱动。

尽管报告了原生中继链的活动,但Polkadot生态系统中的大多数活动都发生在parachain上。每个第一层的parachain都有自己的社区、经济和管理模式,因此很难汇总数据。Polkadot社区的成员目前正在建立改进的数据源以监测整体活动。在这期间,XCM信息可以作为整个生态系统活动的代理。自5月推出以来,超过10万条XCM消息已经通过各种渠道发送,用于不同的使用情况。即将推出的XCM V3,开放更多的HRMP渠道,以及新的parachains的加入,应该会导致加速采用。

Polkadot的分权和押注保持一致。总验证人、总提名人和总供应量的百分比等基本指标要么持平,要么略有上升,这表明基础层的生态系统正在运作和健康。Polkadot还发布了两个新的赌注相关产品,提名池和赌注仪表板,现在允许任何人参与Polkadot赌注,并大大改善了赌注的用户体验。

在未来几个月,Polkadot将发布各种各样的产品,以进一步分散网络,提高其能力和功能。即将发布的产品将包括治理V2,XCM V3,共同的好准绳,异步支持,和准绳。为了在竞争日益激烈的市场中进一步推动采用,发展中的Polkadot需要诞生强大的跨链应用,让社区兴奋并吸引新的用户加入平台。

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