关键洞察力
◉ 第三季度,基础用户群、网络稳定性和交易活动的改善等基本面推动了基本网络价值。
◉ 按二级销售量计算,Solana在NFT领域的地位仍然是第二大,仅次于以太坊,并且缩小了差距。
◉ 促进GameFi的战略正在进行中,像Helium这样的独特用例也将进入Solana网络。
◉ 通过更大的地理、托管和所有权分配来改善去中心化的努力仍在继续。
◉ Slope移动钱包黑客攻击和网络中断是单独的、孤立的事件,并没有重复发生。
◉ 生态系统的定位是通过网络升级、技术整合、社区建设和改善用户可及性继续发展。
关于Solana的初步介绍
Solana是一个公共的、开源的区块链,旨在提供可扩展性并支持智能合约而不牺牲去中心化和安全性。它通过一种称为历史证明(PoH)的新型时间戳机制来实现这一目标。使用PoH,网络可以在交易通过Proof-of-Stake(PoS)机制处理之前对交易进行排序和批处理。其他设计目标包括亚秒级结算时间、低交易成本,以及支持所有与LLVM兼容的智能合约语言,包括Rust、C、C++,以及最终的Move。
第三季度叙事
尽管第二季度的市场逆风,Solana继续实施解决方案,以扩大其生态系统并提高网络可靠性。为了提高网络可靠性,减少拥堵期间的停机时间,核心开发人员建立了QUIC和一个新的费用优先机制。到第二季度末,随着网络性能下降的稳定,这些解决方案显然已经发挥作用。此外,团队还实施了一些战略,通过推出NFT市场、实现EVM兼容性、推进Solana Pay和Solana Mobile来扩大生态系统。
在第三季度,熊市凸显了该网络的基本用户群和推进其增长战略的能力。同时,出现了更多的挑战。在第三季度初,Solana生态系统遭受了Slope移动钱包的攻击,并在季度末发生了网络中断。尽管如此,Solana的采用使命仍然完好无损,这一点从进一步的整合、生态系统的扩展以及主网Beta V1.10系列所带来的网络功能的进步中可以看出。作为2022年第二季度Solana状况报告的后续,本报告将深入探讨本季度的量化表现,以及Solana正在继续克服挑战并在不利的市场条件下取得进展的定性证据。
*后续事件,如最近的芒果市场的探索,将在《索拉纳2022年第四季度状况》报告中涉及。
性能分析
网络和财务概况
在第三季度,尽管宏观经济环境相似,但网络和财务表现却与第二季度不同。
以独特付费者和独特签名者衡量的用户活动在季度间有所下降,而日均交易和每秒交易量(TPS)则有所增加。这两项指标在第二季度出现了相反的情况。
收入(-25%)和平均交易费用(-42%)在第三季度继续下降。收入的下降幅度没有上季度那么大,而平均交易费用却下降了。
尽管收入下降,但市值(即网络价值)保持稳定。
虽然业绩表现不同,方向也有变化,但每个指标之间的关系更多揭示了网络的基本面。
每天的独特付费者指标包括每天至少为一项交易付费的独特账户的数量。尽管在第二季度的市场条件下,独特支付人继续保持上升趋势。然而,这一趋势在第二季度末出现逆转,并在第三季度稳定下来。
由于一些协议使用单一的付费账户来支付其用户群交易的费用,以绝对数字表示的独特付费者指标可能低估了与Solana网络互动的独特钱包的数量。出于这个原因,跟踪Unique Signers可能是衡量用户活动的一个更准确的方法。
尽管如此,在这一季度,独特签名者的趋势与独特付费者密切相关。目前还不清楚为什么根据这些指标的用户活动会出现逆转,因为不同部门(NFTs、DeFi、GameFi等)的活动情况不一。
考虑到熊市的背景,这些指标可能揭示了基本和可持续的用户基础。作为参考,在第三季度之前的九个月里,平均每天的独特付费者数量为23万。在第三季度的加密货币寒冬中,每日独特付费者的指标恢复到平均水平,这表明有一个基础的用户群。
Solana上的交易可以分为共识和非共识(代币转移和智能合约逻辑)交易。Solana的PoS机制与其他智能合约平台不同,因为其共识投票被登记为链上事件。非投票交易类似于EVM交易计数。它们代表了网络上的实际经济活动。共识和非共识交易的总和被认为是总交易。
网络上的交易活动没有遵循与每日独特付费者相似的模式。交易活动增加(非投票交易季度+70%),与过去的剧烈波动相比,保持了一个稳定的季度。此外,TPS继续创下历史新高,平均TPS(约3,200)环比增长40%。交易活动的增加和季度稳定主要是由于网络性能的改善,而不是更多的用户。
此前,网络性能的主要问题来自于Gulfstream,即Solana对未决交易的mempool的替代。湾流允许机器人提出任意数量的交易。由于机器人提出这么多交易,网络经常出现拥堵,导致性能下降。
在前几个季度有几十个事件记录,从网络拥堵到停止。在第三季度,Solana继续实施主网测试版V1.10系列的阶段,费用优先机制上线,随后带来更多的网络稳定性。在第三季度,除了9月30日,网络避免了性能下降或网络停止。这个例外与之前的网络退化来源无关,将在本报告后面强调。
拥有付费者和日常交易的稳定性推动了网络的收入和价值累积。在整个加密货币中,网络使用量正在成为网络价值的一个更重要的部分。问题是,收入和网络价值等指标之间的关系在统计学上有多大意义,是什么促成了这种关系。网络价值主要是由更多的用户和交易数量或交易费用的变化驱动的吗?理想情况下,更多的用户和交易,尽管交易费用较低,也会推动收入,并代表基本的价值累积。与来自更高的交易费或投机性价值的价值相比,这种结果更受欢迎。
为此,收入和网络价值之间的相关性继续存在,因为每日收入的波动和趋势通常伴随着网络价值的变化。
正如在2021年和今年整个第一季度和第二季度所看到的,网络性能的退化降低了网络交易活动,减少了网络的持续收入流量。这给那段时间的网络价值带来了下行压力。然而,在实施V1.10之后,发现更加稳定。通过缴费者的用户活动恢复到长期平均水平,并在第三季度稳定下来,由于网络稳定性提高,交易活动更加显著。交易费用下降40%,加上收入下降25%,表明网络稳定性、用户和交易活动等基本面是推动基本网络价值的因素。
尽管交易费用急剧下降,但第三季度总收入在完全摊薄的市值中的比例比以往任何时候都要大。从估值的角度来看,这种关系也与P/S比率的方向一致。
生态系统和开发者概述
总而言之,网络性能、用户和交易活动等基本要素影响着价值的累积。自然的后续问题是什么推动了基本活动?这个问题可以通过评估Solana的生态系统、开发者参与和增长战略来回答。
DeFi
与其他L1网络一样,Solana第三季度以美元和SOL计价的TVL大约下降了16%。然而,在第三季度之前的12个月里,以SOL计价的TVL的平均金额是~6500万,这也是第三季度的平均水平。从这个角度来看,第三季度以SOL计价的TVL趋于稳定。随着TVL恢复到其平均值,它可能反映了可持续的效用,而不是纯粹由价格波动、投机或DeFi激励所催化的价值。
在前几个季度,Solana的长尾DeFi协议有一个明显的趋势,至少有100万美元的TVL。这导致前五名以外的80多个协议占据了整个Solana DeFi生态系统约60%的TVL。这种趋势和关系在第三季度发生了变化,50%的TVL分布在较长的DeFi协议中,意味着TVL向前五名转移了-10%。
TVL在Solend(28%)、Marinade Finance(8%)和Lido(111%)的增长最为明显。然而,Lido的液体押注的增长可能催化了Solend和Marinade Finance的TVL的增长。流动押注允许押注者在Solend等借贷协议上使用他们的押注资产。
尽管如此,在Solana上仍然存在着TVL在各个应用中的健康分布。目前,50%的TVL被锁定在网络上的大多数长尾DeFi协议中。持续的多样化TVL水平有助于减轻整体生态系统的风险。一些顶级网络的TVL暴露于单一应用,占生态系统TVL的50-60%。相比之下,没有任何一个Solana应用显得 “大而不倒”,Solana最大的DeFi协议,Solend,在第三季度末只占据了14%的TVL。
NFTs
与Solana的DeFi部门既减速又稳定不同,其NFT生态系统继续增长。每天新的NFT总数增加到800多万,意味着季度增长19.3%。从这个角度看,这一增长是在第二季度增长了46.4%之后继续的,是一年前水平的8.5倍。
Solana的NFT生态系统一直被Metaplex的数字资产标准的持续优化所推动,该标准是Solana上所有NFT的基础代币标准。Metaplex继续迭代其流行的开源铸币解决方案,如Candy Machine,最近宣布为技术较差的创作者提供无代码解决方案。总体而言,Solana和Metaplex继续为创作者提供一个有效推出NFT的地方。
Metaplex在第三季度宣布对NFTs进行压缩,可能会继续这一趋势。压缩将降低NFTs的链上存储成本,使航空公司和现场活动等企业级用户能够在链上存储票据,并以目前以太坊上不可用的规模推出。压缩将允许同时铸造多达100万个NFTs,价格约为6 SOL(204美元),1亿个,价格约为50 SOL(1700美元)。
虽然每天新的NFTs继续加速,但二级销售量季度下降了62%。宏观力量可能使第三季度的二级市场停滞不前,因为独特的卖家比买家更多。从这个角度看,第二季度的二级销售量激增,主要是由于Magic Eden的迅速成功,OpenSea与Solana的整合,以及Metaplex收集标准的采用。
尽管如此,销售量还是从第二季度末的低点回升。更加精简的NFT铸币解决方案、额外的市场和增强的用户体验应用的高潮,可能会在未来几个季度内发展NFT生态系统。Phantom使其浏览器扩展的用户可以直接在Magic Eden上列出他们的NFT。Atomic Wallet在其桌面和移动版本上推出了对Solana NFTs的支持。Solana NFTs也开始在Rarible等其他NFT市场交易。此外,Dust Labs宣布了700万美元的融资,包括来自Metaplex和Solana Ventures的1.5亿美元基金的资金。Dust Labs正在建立增值软件,以促进NFT社区的更多用户访问和体验。
尽管有熊市,Solana的战略和在NFT领域的地位仍然强劲。在二级销售量方面,Solana仍然是第二大网络,仅次于以太坊,并且正在缩小差距。
GameFi
GameFi显然正处于催化整个加密货币空间的活动浪潮的边缘。同样明显的是,像以太坊、Solana、Avalanche和其他网络正在战略性地走向发展GameFi生态系统。
Solana Ventures为促进GameFi而设立的1.5亿美元的基金正在进入2022年。此后,更多的投资基金加入了这一努力,Solana已经在游戏领域聚集了一些牵引力。
在第三季度,像Eternal Dragons这样的游戏平台描述了在Solana上游戏的机会,指出Solana的 “速度、功能、开发者社区和碳足迹”。其他几个平台似乎也同意Eternal Dragons的理由。
例如,Magic Eden宣布推出Magic Ventures,这是一个专注于投资区块链游戏和游戏基础设施的基金,而GameFi基础设施的重要开发商Ancient8则推出了Dojo,即Solana的第一个GameFi启动平台。
独特的使用案例
当加密货币驱动的去中心化无线网络Helium提议从其原生区块链转移到Solana时,一个独特用例在DeFi、NFTs和GameFi之外的显著扩展。通过链上投票,该提议获得通过,因此,Helium将把其所有的业务转移到Solana区块链上。
开发者活动
某一时期的活跃程序是生态系统发展的另一个指标。活跃程序指标代表了基于单个程序地址的至少有一个成功的日常指令的应用程序。随着越来越多的应用程序的推出和用户群的增长,活跃程序的数量也在稳步增加。
在以前的报告中,核心开发者的参与也是通过跟踪索拉纳实验室GitHub仓库中的事件的数据源来衡量的。这些数据表明,在过去几个季度中,核心开发一直处于波动状态,但平均增长幅度不大。
然而,目前关于开发者数据的数据源并不完善,因为它们存在于今天。不是所有的提交都是平等的。数据源的工作原理是对不同仓库的GitHub事件进行原始测量,这导致了对核心开发者活动的不完整描述。
虽然有证据表明核心开发者正在为Solana基础设施做出贡献,但未来的报告将旨在通过更可靠的数据来源和方法来评估活动。
质押和权力下放概述
尽管经历了动荡的第二季度,网络的赌注和权力下放依然强劲。在过去的一年里,Solana的平均股份一直保持在75%左右。这种稳定性在一定程度上缓解了网络价值的波动。
第三季度的赌注金额相对平稳,平均总赌注按季度增长2.8%。
平均委托人的数量连续第二个季度下降。索拉纳委托人被称为活跃的赌客,以获得赌金奖励的账户数量来衡量。因为大多数钱包只有一个赌注账户,委托人数量是赌注者数量的一个粗略指示。
自2021年第二季度以来,每个季度,索拉纳的平均验证者数量都保持两位数的百分比增长。第三季度的平均验证者人数从1974人增长到2210人,意味着网络安全参与者在该季度增加了11.9%。
尽管活跃的订户有所下降,但总赌注金额缺乏波动,再加上验证人的增加,这是一个健康的PoS网络的标志。
在整个2021年,索拉纳的中本聪系数一直徘徊在十几位左右。但由于股权数额保持稳定,而验证人数量增加,它在第二季度提高到27,第三季度提高到31。与其他L1网络相比,这种改善继续使Solana高于行业平均水平。
一个拥有高的中本聪系数和不断增长的验证者数量的网络,仍然容易受到外部因素的影响。索拉纳基金会在中本聪系数之外,扩展了对分散化的不同方面的评估,并在第三季度发布了一份网络健康报告。其他去中心化指标包括地理多样性,数据中心所有权,以及实体对验证者的控制。
在第三季度末,虽然分布在超过25个国家,但约50%的Solana验证者和约40%的总股份位于德国和美国。地域集中是L1网络的典型特征,也是Solana旨在解决的一个领域。由于地缘政治风险、法规和自然行为等原因,在同一地点有太多的验证者可能会危及网络的健康。
数据中心的集中是关于去中心化的另一个关注领域。
使用像AWS这样的私人数据中心来运行验证器可能会使数据中心的所有者对网络拥有不成比例的权力。然而,通过第三季度,Solana上的总股权分布,没有一个数据中心在托管33.3%的范围内。
最后,验证人所有权的集中是另一个去中心化的因素。关键是没有一个实体拥有所有的验证器(无论是否由数据中心托管)并获得对验证器集的多数控制权。截至第三季度,Solana网络上有超过2000个区块生产的节点。Solana基金会在他们的网络健康报告中证实,独立实体运行了约88%的验证器集。
竞争分析
自成立以来,Solana见证了高速增长,成功地保持了其作为最有价值的L1网络之一的地位。在这里,我们评估了Solana与按TVL计算的前五名L1(包括Solana)和那些拥有最大数量DeFi协议的L1的进展。这个同行组是通过对具有最大TVL和协议数量的前五个链进行分组得出的。
Solana的估值在整个季度都有波动,但其市值保持相对平稳(+4%)。市值主导地位在本季度被Ethereum、BNB Chain和Polygon重新夺回,因为它们都经历了两位数的百分比增长。在价值累积方面,Fantom继续挣扎。
同样,索拉纳的日收入呈下降趋势,尽管日均交易量有所增加。因此,收入的下降被归因于交易费用的下降。与Solana一样,以太坊的交易量平均上升,但在合并后,以太坊经历了交易费用的急剧下降,使该协议的收入下降了约80%。另一方面,由于平均交易费和每日交易量的下降,其他同行在整个季度都经历了下降。
在本季度,索拉纳的P/S比率与同行相比有所下降。P/S的变化衡量了协议的收入,并给出了协议处理的交易量和成本的感觉。由于SOLANA的价值变化是持平的,而且其交易活动支持收入,因此与同行相比,SOL的每单位收入的成本变得更低。
第三季度加密货币DeFi市场表现平平,以美元计算的总TVL开始和结束时约为540亿美元。Solana的TVL下降率在顶级L1中排名第三(-16%),Avalanche和Fantom下降的幅度更大。由于TVL的下降通常是以美元评估的,资产价值的下降代表了TVL的价格变化与DeFi的实际利用率。虽然以美元计算的TVL下降了,但以SOL计价的锁定金额相对稳定。
整个索拉纳的NFT部门的一些发展使其相对于按二级NFT销售量计算的顶级L1的同行来说保持了强劲的地位。二级销售量在9月初成功地超过了以太坊。在此期间的大部分活动都发生在Magic Eden V2上。
虽然以太坊仍然主导着大约80%的二级NFT市场,但Solana正在缩小销售量的差距。本季度,以太坊的主导地位从平均约85%下降到约80%。Solana的份额从平均约10%上升到略低于20%。
定性分析
生态系统增长的关键事件、催化剂和战略
虽然熊市持续,但Solana的扩张战略和网络升级在整个第三季度推进。像Solana Ventures和Metaplex这样的生态系统参与者部署了战略资本,将创意者引入NFT和游戏领域。此外,随着Helium网络选择Solana的价值主张作为其新家,一个独特的案例展开了。除了这些引人注意的事件之外,索拉纳战略的其他方面自其成立以来一直作为增长的关键因素在后台运行。虽然不是相互排斥,但第三季度的相关战略要素可以概括为三个方面。
◉ 技术–整合、分散和改进功能。
◉ 用户访问和体验–以更大的用户访问和体验吸引用户。
◉ 社区–通过社区建设获得开发者并推动采用。
网络停顿
9/30/2022 – 网络中断与V1.10和QUIC升级后解决的湾流和垃圾邮件问题无关。相反,停顿是由于一个异常的共识错误。到了第二天(第四季度开始),Solana网络上的区块生产在7个小时的连锁停顿后恢复了。
虽然这一季度给生态系统及其参与者带来了困难的挑战,但这些问题是孤立的和独特的案例。此外,核心的Solana协议和它的密码学并没有受到影响。
未来之路
目前,Solana没有保持一个公开的路线图。未来的大部分道路将继续反映Solana生态系统几个季度以来一直在进行的对外工作。
V1.10的进一步实施,收费优先机制,以及其他发展将继续推出。 随着这些升级的实施,网络性能应该会持续改善。
另一个仍然在地平线上的重要发展是Neon。虽然该项目已经发布了Neon Alpha(开发网络),但它还没有在主网上线。另一个即将到来的发展是Nitro,其目的是将Solana的执行环境与Cosmos IBC生态系统相结合。有了Neon和Nitro作为网关,可能会有类似于其他L1收购开发者和催化网络效应的显著增长。
将Move作为Solana上的一种新的智能合约语言引入,可以吸引更多的开发者。虽然仍处于早期阶段,但Move一旦实施,可能会催化Solana生态系统中更多的开发者活动。
最后,Android版Solana移动堆栈(SMS)的开源工作仍在进行中。SMS将在Solana上实现原生的安卓Web3应用。此外,Saga,第一款Solana移动安卓手机,将在2023年第一季度开始使用SMS发货。这些发展旨在为智能手机搭桥,并带来独特的功能和特性,将与Solana区块链紧密结合。其功能将包括Dialect和Solana Mobile正在建立的开源消息应用程序。为了让Saga和SMS获得成功,应该寻求更多类似与Dialect的合作。
总结
在第三季度,熊市浮现了网络的基本用户基础和推进其增长战略的能力。用户活动恢复到长期的平均水平,并在第三季度趋于稳定。由于网络稳定性的提高,交易活动更为显著。基础用户群、网络稳定性和交易活动等基本要素继续推动网络价值。
生态系统继续扩大。各个应用的TVL的健康分布仍然存在。索拉纳在NFT领域的战略和地位仍然强劲。其第二大二级销售量正在缩小与以太坊的差距。促进GameFi的战略正在进行中,Solana看到更多独特的用例,如Helium加入生态系统。
网络的抵押和去中心化仍然强劲。Solana的目标是通过地理上的多样性、托管和验证者的实体分布来提高去中心化程度。
虽然网络的基本面随着其推进增长战略的能力而改善,但本季度出现了一些挑战。这些问题是孤立的,不具有重复性。
最终,Solana生态系统正在继续努力,通过纳入增长战略,包括网络升级、技术整合、社区建设和改善用户的可及性来实现增长。
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