关键见解

◉ 去中心化无线(DeWi)旨在通过激励运营商部署和维护电信硬件以换取代币奖励,彻底改变通信网络的建设、运营和拥有方式。

◉ 由于减少了资本支出和运营支出,DeWi网络与传统供应商相比实现了卓越的单位经济效益;DeWi还消除了频谱许可成本和对终端用户的统一收费。

◉ 截至2022年10月,有超过14个DeWi网络(包括蜂窝、WiFi、物联网、蓝牙和混合网络)得到企业部署者、服务提供商和市场的生态系统支持。

◉ DeWi最直接的机会是5G蜂窝网络市场,其中Helium和Pollen Mobile处于领先地位。

过去几十年来,硬件和电信基础设施的技术进步创造了一个超级互联的世界,每天都有2.5万亿字节的数据产生。得益于移动电话,今天,全世界有66%的人使用互联网,而2000年只有7%。随着世界各地互联网连接和访问的增加,所创造的数据量只会继续增加。

新技术的兴起–自动驾驶汽车、物联网(带有传感器的设备连接到互联网)、智能城市和扩展现实环境–导致全球对更高带宽和更低延迟网络的需求增加。然而,传统的无线(TradWi)网络运营商却无法跟上这种增加的需求。

新一代的电信牛仔正在开创去中心化的无线(DeWi)运动。这些牛仔们提供了一种使用加密经济协议部署和运营网络的替代方法。下一代无线网络可以利用区块链技术的协调能力进行引导。与其由单一的、中心化的电信参与者来建立无线网络,不如让数以百万计的主权个体统一起来,以无信任、无许可和程序化的方式部署和运营无线基础设施。

电信业的背景

由于大量的资本支出(CapEx)和运营费用(OpEx)、复杂的物流和监管障碍,部署无线网络历来需要大公司的努力。这导致少数几家公司控制着最终用户的定价结构和条件,有效地消除了自由市场。在美国,只有三家公司–AT&T、Verizon和T-Mobile–占了无线市场的98.9%。在22年第二季度,这些公司累计创造了2700亿美元的年化收入。

传统上,大约每10年,电信公司(telcos)会部署新的无线网络。这个过程涉及。

◉ 筹集数百亿美元的债务,以资助资本支出和运营支出
◉ 从政府购买频谱许可证
◉ 与制造商签订合同,建造专有硬件
◉ 寻找愿意接纳塔台和无线电的业主
◉ 调动成千上万的现场技术人员来安装和维护复杂的设备

颠覆一个沉睡的万亿美元的行业

今天的数字时代已经形成了一个1.7万亿美元的全球电信市场,预计将以5.4%的复合年增长率(CAGR)增长。到2028年,全球电信市场预计将达到2.7万亿美元。然而,缺乏竞争,巨大的客户不满,以及对更高带宽连接速度的不断需求,使该行业面临着颠覆。

电信公司用于建设网络的传统自上而下的模式不适合建设下一代无线网络。新的无线网络–如5G–需要比老一代网络多得多的无线电和天线,这对电信公司来说在经济上是不可行的。此外,传统的电信公司模式历来被优化为覆盖人口稠密的地区,使许多人口较少的农村地区没有足够的覆盖。如果一个人住在没有适当覆盖的地区,如果依靠TradWi电信公司,也没有什么办法。

通过DeWi的开放接入部署模式,DeWi网络可以在TradWi供应商经济上不可行的地方增加无线密度。DeWi还使个人有能力改善他们的连接。例如,一家历来连接不佳的餐馆的老板可以部署自己的DeWi设备,为自己和顾客解决连接问题。虽然DeWi完全取代TradWi网络的可能性很小,但两者可以相互共存,形成共生关系。

为什么现在选择DeWi?

在过去的几年里,电信业经历了三个重大转变,使DeWi的采用现在就能实现:eSIMs成为主流,无线频谱的开放,以及区块链技术和无线硬件的发展。

 

eSIM成为主流

上个月,苹果公司发布了iPhone 14,有一个重大区别:不再有物理SIM卡插槽。最新的iPhone采用了被称为eSIM的数字替代品,可以通过扫描二维码进行配置。这对DeWi蜂窝网络来说是一个重要的发展,因为它将运营商的转换成本降低到接近零。此外,由于iPhone 14有6个eSIM插槽,用户可以在现有的传统运营商的eSIM之外再安装一个DeWi eSIM,并同时使用两个蜂窝网络。

2021年,据估计,全球有3.5亿台具备eSIM功能的设备出货。到本十年末,预计将有约140亿台具备eSIM功能的设备。苹果公司最近决定走eSIM路线,可能会加速这一趋势。

无线频谱的开放

频谱是指无线信号传播的无线电频率。在美国,频谱由联邦通信委员会(FCC)监管,分为两种类型:许可和非许可。

持牌频谱由FCC拍卖给出价最高的人,这意味着它被买来供特定网络运营商独家使用。在这些拍卖的有效期内,已经从频谱许可证销售中向美国财政部支付了2500多亿美元。这是电信公司向消费者转嫁的费用。

另一方面,非授权频谱可供任何人使用。WiFi、蓝牙和LoRaWAN都是非授权频谱。

公民宽带无线电服务(CBRS)频段以前只提供给美国海军使用。 然而,在2020年,FCC授权公众使用CBRS频段。这很重要,因为它允许新进入者部署5G网络,而不必获得昂贵的频谱许可证。

早在1985年,FCC通过开放WiFi频段供公众使用,从根本上改变了人类的通信和运作方式。它允许任何人购买一个WiFi路由器并创建自己的无线连接。CBRS有可能像WiFi为互联网连接所做的那样,彻底改变蜂窝网络。

区块链技术和硬件的进步

人类是激励驱动的。然而,在区块链之前,要在全球范围内促进个人的大规模协调是非常困难的。现在,有了加密经济协议,个人可以被激励,以一种无信任和程序化的方式为一个共同的目标而努力。

此外,无线技术的进步使硬件更加实惠和容易获得。即插即用的硬件使普通人可以轻松参与部署DeWi硬件。

DeWi运动

一个新的创新时代已经出现,它利用代币激励来发展现实世界中的物理基础设施网络。这一类被称为物理工作证明(PoPW),代币激励的物理基础设施网络(TIPIN),或EdgeFi。

Escape Velocity是一家专注于投资去中心化基础设施网络的基金,它将物理基础设施领域细分为以下领域:去中心化无线(DeWi)网络、传感器网络、服务器网络和能源网络。尽管这些网络有很大的潜力,但DeWi部门吸引了最早的关注。

DeWi旨在通过激励运营商部署和维护电信硬件以换取代币奖励,彻底改变通信网络的建设、运营和拥有方式。通过将建设和维护网络的相关成本分配给供应方参与者,一个更具成本效益的引导网络的方法被发掘出来。

DeWi的起源故事

2019年7月,Helium开创了DeWi运动,其LoRaWAN网络旨在为物联网(IoT)供电。通过其LoRaWAN网络的成功,从2021年1月的15,000个热点发展到今天的90多万个热点,Helium表明,代币激励可以用来建立分布式基础设施网络。Helium的LoRaWAN网络是世界上最大的物联网网络,在超过182个国家运营。

最近,Nova实验室–Helium背后的公司–宣布其愿景是将Helium转变为一个去中心化的平台,任何类型的电信网络都可以部署。这一战略转变将Helium变成了一个网络的网络,使LoRaWAN网络快速扩展的过程可以复制到许多其他网络类型上,包括5G、WiFi、VPN和CDN。

DeWi部门

随着Helium的LoRaWAN网络的成功,许多项目受到启发,采用与Helium类似的模式推出新的DeWi网络。今天,已有超过14个DeWi网络,包括蜂窝、WiFi、LoRaWAN、蓝牙和混合网络。

5G网络(蜂窝):这个类别中的两个突出的参与者是Helium 5G和Pollen Mobile网络,它们利用了最近放松管制的CBRS频谱。与其他网络市场规模相比,蜂窝网络的市场机会是最大的。

WiFi网络:DeWiFi网络旨在创建一个全球共享的WiFi网络,任何人都可以以低价连接。WayRu和WiFi Dabba是这个类别中的两个早期项目建设。

◉ LoRaWAN网络(物联网): LoRaWAN(长距离广域网)是一种长距离、低功率的无线通信协议。它适合于远距离传输小数据包–如传感器数据–这使它成为物联网设备的首选网络。除了Helium,Foam和Chirp也在这个类别中建设。

蓝牙网络:蓝牙低能量供电的网络适用于低功率和低范围的用例。Nodle是一个蓝牙网状网络,利用智能手机和蓝牙低能量路由器将物联网设备连接到互联网。

混合网络: 混合网络将不同的无线技术结合到一个单一的解决方案中,以提供分散的互联网连接。Althea和世界移动代币是这方面的两个例子。

该模式如何运作

DeWi网络利用一种新颖的代币分配机制,奖励参与者在现实世界中完成可验证的工作。这个激励系统负责经济飞轮,使网络能够在没有中心化实体的情况下被引导起来。

经济飞轮首先为用户提供奖励,以获取和部署网络硬件。

  1. 硬件运营商通过通货膨胀的代币奖励来激励购买和部署热点或无线电并维护它。这些奖励作为运营商的补贴,使他们能够立即开始赚取硬件投资的回报。在网络开始从需求方的使用中产生可持续的费用之前,这些奖励通常支持参与者建设网络。
    随着无线网络的发展,更多的运营商和产品建设者被吸引到网络中。此外,DeWi改进的单位经济性(与TradWi相比)和对硬件运营商的象征性补贴使该协议能够提供更便宜的数据传输率,有助于吸引终端用户。
  2. 一旦网络的覆盖范围增长到足以让终端用户开始付费通过网络传输数据,硬件运营商的收入就会大幅增加。除了网络的补贴外,运营商还根据流经其硬件的数据量来赚取费用。这种经济机制创造了一个反馈循环,最终吸引了更多的硬件运营商和投资者。
  3. 价值通常是通过烧钱平衡(BME)代币模型或工作代币模型来获取。当一个网络的效用随着供应量通过BME模型的燃烧或服务提供商通过工作令牌模型的抵押而增加时,理论上令牌价格应该增加。不断上涨的代币价格回流到吸引更多的硬件运营商,形成一个良性循环。DeWi经济飞轮所产生的网络效应从本质上解决了冷启动问题。利用奖励,协议可以激励参与者引导网络的供应方,使其覆盖范围大到足以供最终用户使用。这使协议能够建立起获得采用所需的初始动力,并与集中式电信公司竞争。作为建立网络供应方的交换,运营商获得了网络的所有权,这促使他们看到网络的成功。

传统的网络部署模式与DeWi的模式对比

DeWi部署网络的方法大大改进了传统模式。上图是建立在无边界资本的EdgeFi研究之上的。

与TradWi的网络部署相比,DeWi最大的优势在于减少了资本支出和运营支出。以传统方式构建网络需要一个中央实体花费数百亿美元来获得频谱许可证,购买带有供应商锁定的专有硬件,租赁土地进行部署,支付成千上万的现场技术人员来安装和维护设备,并维护用于规划、入职、计费和客户支持的大规模后端基础设施。而这些成本最终会转嫁给消费者。

使用DeWi方法,资本支出和运营支出都是由参与网络的各个运营商共同承担的。运营商购买商品化的、现成的硬件,可以不费吹灰之力就能安装。例如,设置LoRaWAN热点就像将以太网和电源线插入设备一样简单,只需不到5分钟。另一方面,蜂窝式无线电对普通人来说要复杂一些,需要额外的时间和技术知识来安装。

对于零售业的部署,DeWi运营商能够将其硬件放在他们拥有的物业上,消除任何房地产成本。对于商业部署,运营商将不得不向第三方房东支付费用。然而,DeWi允许运营商根据每个硬件设备产生的收入签订自动收入分享协议。这与TradWi部署形成对比,在TradWi部署中,运营商必须向房东支付固定费用。DeWi的收入分享模式不仅效率更高,而且允许房地产业主核实其房产上的硬件收益,从而核实他们的收入分成。

总而言之,DeWi通过减少资本支出和运营支出,消除频谱成本和对终端用户的统一收费,能够实现比TradWi更高的单位经济效益。

DeWi生态系统的现状

硬件制造商

最初,Nova Labs是第一家能够启动Helium网络的LoRaWAN矿机制造商。然而,Nova实验室的目标从来不是进入硬件业务。最终,在2021年1月,Helium通过了HIP19,允许Helium社区批准第三方制造商通过协议的治理程序来生产和销售硬件。这不仅使网络进一步去中心化,而且促进了其快速增长。

今天,有超过65家Helium硬件制造商,上面的生态系统图中强调了一些顶级的参与者。许多Helium硬件制造商已经扩展到为其他DeWi协议(如Pollen Mobile)制造硬件。由于生态系统的开放性,任何硬件制造商都可以参与进来,为市场带来良性竞争。

企业部署者

企业部署者是在DeWi网络之上运行的集中式实体,作为网络的合作伙伴,专业地部署和管理大规模的硬件。这些实体在硬件的采购、安装、优化和管理方面提供专业知识。此外,这些公司还利用其企业合作伙伴,包括房地产业主和硬件制造商,来大规模部署硬件。

Hexagon Wireless是目前最大的协议无关的企业部署者之一,为Helium和Pollen移动网络部署硬件。以加速DeWi运动为目标,Hexagon最终计划在金融服务、车队管理软件和无线覆盖服务等垂直领域投资DeWi应用和工具。其他企业部署者包括Noble Networks和LongFi Solutions。

服务供应商、工具和市场平台

一个由工具、服务提供商和市场组成的生态系统已经开始出现了。Hotspotty和Airwaive等工具有助于充当DeWi社区的协调工具。Hotspotty协助进行位置优化、硬件监控和管理,以及支付管理。Airwaive是一个市场,将网络运营商与愿意托管DeWi硬件的住宅或商业建筑业主联系起来。

5G:DeWi蜜罐

自2017年以来,全球移动数据流量增加了570%。今天,世界上59%的网络流量来自于移动设备。Hexagon Wireless表示,蜂窝网络的机会比LoRaWAN更有利可图,也可能永远不会。他们认为蜂窝网络的市场机会估计比物联网网络大88倍。5G已经有巨大的需求。因此,DeWi最直接的机会是蜂窝网络市场。

直到2022年初,Helium是唯一追求5G市场的协议。截至目前,其他四个协议已经进入竞争,争夺这个巨大的机会。Pollen Mobile、XNET、Karrier和REALLY。未来的一份报告将深入探讨DeWi 5G网络,并分析项目之间的差异。

下一代无线网络

下一代无线网络,如5G,需要一个替代传统部署模式的方法。历史上,安装在大型铁塔或桅杆上的宏蜂窝无线电,被用来为蜂窝网络提供大面积的地理覆盖。宏蜂窝的问题是,它们提供的覆盖是低频的,而5G网络需要更高的频段–与老一代蜂窝网络不同–以增加带宽。

相反,需要小型蜂窝无线电来实现未来的5G网络。小蜂窝是低功率的无线电–大约有一个比萨饼盒那么大–提供高频覆盖。硬件的小尺寸意味着它可以安装在更方便的地方,如房子的屋顶、灯杆或建筑物的侧面。

然而,与宏基站不同的是,小基站的覆盖范围大约只在100码到1英里多一点,而且高频信号很难在建筑物中传播。这意味着需要有更多的小型电池–室内和室外–相互靠近,才能实现与宏蜂窝的公平覆盖。

FCC预计80%的5G部署将是小蜂窝。目前的问题或机会是,传统的电信公司没有能力建立这些小蜂窝网络,因为他们的部署模式被优化为提供整体宏观覆盖,而不是最后一英里或室内覆盖。在全国范围内建设小蜂窝网络的资本支出和特殊的物流要求对TradWi运营商来说没有经济意义。小蜂窝网络将需要零售和点对点的部署。DeWi可以在这方面提供帮助。

DeWi为构建5G网络提供了一个经济上更有效的解决方案。DeWi不是取代TradWi,而是可以与之携手合作。DeWi允许世界各地的用户并行建设网络,这比集中式方法快得多。对其管辖范围有具体了解的参与者可以专注于部署满足其当地市场需求的基础设施。加上TradWi的宏观覆盖和DeWi的小蜂窝覆盖,5G可以让世界各地的人们更容易获得。

DeWi蜂窝网络的未来

DeWi蜂窝网络有三种不同的定位方式:作为中立主机、加密运营商和私人网络。

中立主机模式允许多个移动网络运营商(MNOs)使用DeWi网络拥有的基础设施。这可能需要建立数据卸载合作关系,当用户身处没有运营商覆盖的地区时,MNO会漫游到DeWi的蜂窝网络上。此外,MNO可以在其网络拥堵时付费卸载数据,避免服务下降。DeWi小蜂窝网络很可能被用来强化传统MNO的宏观网络。

中立主机模式的替代方案是密码载体路线。Nova实验室将加密运营商定义为:”一种创新的移动运营商模式,利用以人为本的覆盖和加密经济学来降低成本,增加用户的利益。” 上个月,Nova Labs公布了他们自己的加密运营商Helium Mobile。值得注意的是,加密运营商类似于移动虚拟网络运营商或MVNO–一个不运营自己基础设施的服务提供商。

Nova Labs的加密运营商将Helium的5G网络与T-Mobile的网络相结合。当Helium Mobile的用户在没有DeWi覆盖的地区时,加密运营商会切换到T-Mobile的网络。

最后一种选择是私人网络。花粉移动最初是为Pronto–一家越野自动驾驶汽车技术公司提供的内部连接解决方案。Pronto的车辆在偏远地区需要可靠的互联网连接,因此该团队建立了自己的私人蜂窝网络,导致了Pollen的分拆和成立。

私人蜂窝网络将变得越来越受欢迎,因为它能够为企业提供灵活的覆盖范围,具有更低的延迟和更高的带宽连接。它还为终端用户提供了更好的安全和隐私。虽然私人5G网络的市场规模在2021年为14亿美元,但预计2030年将达到340亿美元,年复合增长率为49%。

目前,DeWi最大的机会似乎是中立的主机模式。GigSky和Dish已经宣布他们将利用Helium的5G网络来卸载数据。这意味着他们的客户将在Helium的CBRS网络上无缝漫游,只要有网络可用。虽然Pollen Mobile最初的用例是作为一个私人网络,但该公司已经暗示要追求数据卸载的中立主机模式。此外,XNET,一个由以前的传统电信公司高管发起的项目,已经宣布他们打算追求中立的主机路线。

总结

尽管DeWi领域仍处于萌芽状态,但它彻底改变电信业的潜力是显而易见的。试图在DeWi手机市场上分一杯羹的协议数量迅速增加,显示了未来的重大机遇。此外,许多较新的DeWi项目背后都有一些前传统电信公司的高管,进一步加强了DeWi的合法性。

根据最近的发展,DeWi蜂窝网络不会取代传统的移动网络运营商,但至少在短期内可能会与它们共存。

 

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